Sunderland — Brighton and Hove Albion: Win probabilities, 10.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 58.1% |
| 12 | 72.6% | |
| X2 | 69.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.9% / 42.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.8% / 7.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.4% / 21.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.5% / 46.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.2% / 68.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.5% / 84.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.7% / 93.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 10.10.2026
Sunderland
14th place · 4 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Man City 3:5
- 12.09.2026 home Arsenal 0:2
- 05.09.2026 away Brentford 1:1
- 30.08.2026 home Fulham 1:0
- 22.08.2026 away Ipswich 1:2
Brighton and Hove Albion
3rd place · 10 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Arsenal 3:0
- 13.09.2026 away Coventry 5:0
- 05.09.2026 home Leeds 1:1
- 30.08.2026 away Chelsea 3:4
- 23.08.2026 home Aston Villa 4:0
This season: Sunderland at home vs Brighton and Hove Albion away
| Metric | Sunderland · at home | Brighton and Hove Albion · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–1 | 1–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.50 | 4.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.91 | 2.10 |
| xG against per match | 1.42 | 2.14 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.50 | 6.50 |
| Corners per match | 3.50 | 5.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
- 14.03.2026 Sunderland 0:1 Brighton and Hove Albion
- 20.12.2025 Brighton and Hove Albion 0:0 Sunderland
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Sunderland host Brighton and Hove Albion in the EPL on a fixture that, on paper, looks tilted toward the visitors but is not as one-sided as the table suggests. Brighton and Hove Albion arrive third in the standings with ten points from five matches, having won three of their last five and scored sixteen goals along the way. Sunderland sit fourteenth with four points, taking just one win from their last five and conceding ten in that stretch. The last meeting between the sides also went Brighton and Hove Albion's way, a narrow 0-1 result.
That said, the home picture holds some nuance. Sunderland have played only two matches at their own ground this season, splitting them one win and one defeat, and the underlying signs show a team creating clearly more chances than it concedes at home. Brighton and Hove Albion, by contrast, have been level on chance quality on the road, with one win and one loss from two away trips.
Taken together, the visitors look the stronger side overall, but only moderately so. A tight, medium-scoring contest with both teams finding the net feels in line with the balance of evidence, and a Sunderland share of the points cannot be dismissed.
What matters before kick-off
Sunderland team news
Sunderland manager Régis Le Bris confirmed defender Dan Ballard suffered a hamstring injury on international duty with Northern Ireland and will be out for several weeks. Forward Brian Brobbey also sustained a minor hamstring issue with the Netherlands and will not be risked.
Brighton manager award
Brighton head coach Fabian Hürzeler was named Premier League Manager of the Month for September 2026. He led his team through an unbeaten calendar month featuring victories over Coventry City and Arsenal.
Busy schedule for Brighton
Brighton & Hove Albion's match against Sunderland on October 10 kicks off a congested schedule of eight games in 29 days across the Premier League, UEFA Conference League, and Carabao Cup.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.