Chelsea — Bournemouth: Win probabilities, 10.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 77.9% |
| 12 | 76.1% | |
| X2 | 46.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 69.5% / 30.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.5% / 4.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.8% / 10.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 70.5% / 29.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 49.4% / 50.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 30.2% / 69.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 16.2% / 83.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 10.10.2026
Chelsea
10th place · 7 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.09.2026 away Brentford 0:3
- 12.09.2026 home Hull 2:2
- 06.09.2026 away Arsenal 1:2
- 30.08.2026 home Brighton 4:3
- 24.08.2026 away Fulham 3:2
Bournemouth
17th place · 3 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Liverpool 0:1
- 12.09.2026 home Brentford 2:2
- 05.09.2026 away Newcastle 2:2
- 29.08.2026 home Everton 1:1
- 23.08.2026 away Man City 1:2
This season: Chelsea at home vs Bournemouth away
| Metric | Chelsea · at home | Bournemouth · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 1–1–0 | 0–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.50 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.92 | 1.00 |
| xG against per match | 1.39 | 1.54 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.50 | 4.50 |
| Corners per match | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 30.12.2025 Chelsea 2:2 Bournemouth
- 06.12.2025 Bournemouth 0:0 Chelsea
- 14.01.2025 Chelsea 2:2 Bournemouth
- 14.09.2024 Bournemouth 0:1 Chelsea
- 19.05.2024 Chelsea 2:1 Bournemouth
- 17.09.2023 Bournemouth 0:0 Chelsea
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Chelsea host Bournemouth at Stamford Bridge with a slight edge on their side, though the margin looks narrower than the table positions might suggest. The hosts sit tenth with seven points from five matches, while Bournemouth are down in seventeenth on three points, still searching for their first win of the campaign after a run of three draws and two defeats. At home, Chelsea have been unbeaten in two outings, winning one and drawing one, and they create clearly more chances than they allow in front of their own supporters.
The attacking picture points towards an open game. Chelsea have scored ten goals across their last five matches but also conceded twelve, suggesting defensive fragility that Bournemouth could exploit even away from home, where the visitors allow clearly more chances than they create. The head-to-head record offers a note of caution for the hosts: of the last six meetings, Chelsea have won twice and the other four ended level, including the most recent encounter which finished Chelsea 2-2 Bournemouth in 2025.
Taken together, the balance of evidence favours Chelsea without making them overwhelming favourites. Goals at both ends look the most reasonable expectation, with the hosts likelier, but not certain, to come out ahead.
What matters before kick-off
Chelsea team news
Chelsea head coach Xabi Alonso confirmed that Jamie Gittens will miss the match against Bournemouth with an ankle injury. Meanwhile, Cole Palmer, João Pedro, Reece James and Moisés Caicedo are available for selection.
Bournemouth away form
In 2026, only Arsenal (27) and Manchester City (23) have collected more Premier League away points than Bournemouth (20).
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.