Arsenal — Leeds United: Win probabilities, 10.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 89.1% |
| 12 | 80.4% | |
| X2 | 30.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 44.1% / 55.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.5% / 6.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.8% / 23.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 52.5% / 47.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.3% / 69.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.9% / 85.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.3% / 93.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 10.10.2026
Arsenal
2nd place · 12 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Brighton 0:3
- 12.09.2026 away Sunderland 2:0
- 06.09.2026 home Chelsea 2:1
- 31.08.2026 away Aston Villa 1:0
- 21.08.2026 home Coventry 3:0
Leeds United
5th place · 9 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Crystal Palace 0:0
- 14.09.2026 home Newcastle 4:1
- 05.09.2026 away Brighton 1:1
- 30.08.2026 home Brentford 1:1
- 22.08.2026 away Nott'm Forest 1:0
This season: Arsenal at home vs Leeds United away
| Metric | Arsenal · at home | Leeds United · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 2–0–0 | 1–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| xG for per match | 1.97 | 1.49 |
| xG against per match | 0.30 | 1.43 |
| Shots on target per match | 7.50 | 4.00 |
| Corners per match | 6.50 | 4.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 31.01.2026 Leeds United 0:4 Arsenal
- 23.08.2025 Arsenal 5:0 Leeds United
- 01.04.2023 Arsenal 4:1 Leeds United
- 16.10.2022 Leeds United 0:1 Arsenal
- 08.05.2022 Arsenal 2:1 Leeds United
- 18.12.2021 Leeds United 1:4 Arsenal
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Arsenal welcome Leeds United to north London sitting second in the EPL with twelve points from five matches, a return that reflects four wins and a single defeat across their most recent run. At home they have been particularly convincing, taking maximum points from their two fixtures so far and outscoring opponents five to one. The chance picture at the Emirates reinforces that pattern, with Arsenal creating clearly more opportunities than they concede.
Leeds United travel in solid form of their own, unbeaten in their last five with two wins and three draws, and placed fifth on nine points. On the road they have been harder to beat than to overcome, drawing one and winning one from two outings, though their underlying balance of chances created and allowed sits roughly level. That profile suggests a side capable of frustrating opponents without necessarily asserting control.
The head-to-head record is the most striking element here: in six previous meetings Arsenal have won all six, with the last encounter finishing Leeds United 0-4 Arsenal. Taken together with the hosts' home platform, the picture points to a moderate edge for Arsenal in a match that projects as medium-scoring, with both teams finding the net very much a coin flip.
What matters before kick-off
Leeds United team news
Leeds United manager Daniel Farke confirmed that winger Daniel James is ruled out of the Arsenal clash with a back injury sustained on international duty.
Results before break
Before the international break, Arsenal suffered a 3-0 defeat to Brighton & Hove Albion, while Leeds United played out a 0-0 draw against Crystal Palace.
Head-to-head record
Arsenal have won their last six Premier League head-to-head encounters against Leeds United by an aggregate score of 20-3.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.