Manchester United — Tottenham Hotspur: Win probabilities, 10.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 78.4% |
| 12 | 77.6% | |
| X2 | 43.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 71.6% / 28.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.3% / 3.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 91.3% / 8.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 74.1% / 25.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 53.9% / 46.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 34.4% / 65.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 19.3% / 80.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 10.10.2026
Manchester United
12th place · 5 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Fulham 1:1
- 13.09.2026 home Man City 0:1
- 06.09.2026 away Everton 2:2
- 30.08.2026 home Ipswich 5:2
- 22.08.2026 away Hull 0:2
Tottenham Hotspur
20th place · 2 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Aston Villa 2:3
- 12.09.2026 home Everton 0:0
- 05.09.2026 away Nott'm Forest 0:0
- 29.08.2026 home Newcastle 0:2
- 22.08.2026 away Brentford 0:3
This season: Manchester United at home vs Tottenham Hotspur away
| Metric | Manchester United · at home | Tottenham Hotspur · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–1 | 0–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.50 | 0.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| xG for per match | 2.78 | 0.82 |
| xG against per match | 1.56 | 2.40 |
| Shots on target per match | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| Corners per match | 7.00 | 6.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 07.02.2026 Manchester United 2:0 Tottenham Hotspur
- 08.11.2025 Tottenham Hotspur 2:2 Manchester United
- 16.02.2025 Tottenham Hotspur 1:0 Manchester United
- 29.09.2024 Manchester United 0:3 Tottenham Hotspur
- 14.01.2024 Manchester United 2:2 Tottenham Hotspur
- 19.08.2023 Tottenham Hotspur 2:0 Manchester United
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Manchester United welcome Tottenham Hotspur to Old Trafford in an EPL fixture that pits two sides from the bottom half of the early-season table against each other. The hosts sit 12th with 5 points from 5 matches, while Tottenham Hotspur are propping up the division in 20th on just 2 points. Form over the last five games tells a similar story: Manchester United have mixed one win with two draws and two defeats, but Tottenham Hotspur arrive without a single victory, having conceded 8 goals while scoring only 2.
The home side's underlying numbers at Old Trafford look healthier, creating clearly more chances than they allow, whereas the visitors have been on the wrong side of that balance on their travels, failing to find the net in two away outings. The last meeting also favoured the hosts, with Manchester United winning 2-0 earlier in 2026, though the broader head-to-head record across six games actually leans towards Tottenham Hotspur with three wins.
Taken together, there is a slight edge for Manchester United, but the matchup is far from settled. Both attacks have shown they can be opened up, so goals at either end would not be surprising in a game that looks tilted rather than one-sided.
What matters before kick-off
Manchester United Team News
Manchester United manager Michael Carrick confirmed that Benjamin Sesko, Patrick Dorgu, and Noussair Mazraoui will all miss the match due to injuries.
Premier League Standings Context
Heading into matchday six of the Premier League season, Manchester United occupy 12th place with 5 points, while Tottenham sit in 20th place with 2 points.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.