Aston Villa — Brentford: Win probabilities, 10.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 61.7% |
| 12 | 73.0% | |
| X2 | 65.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.3% / 42.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.0% / 7.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.5% / 22.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 52.8% / 47.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.5% / 69.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.1% / 84.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.4% / 93.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 10.10.2026
Aston Villa
16th place · 4 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Tottenham 3:2
- 12.09.2026 home Nott'm Forest 1:2
- 05.09.2026 away Hull 0:0
- 31.08.2026 home Arsenal 0:1
- 23.08.2026 away Brighton 0:4
Brentford
4th place · 9 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.09.2026 home Chelsea 3:0
- 12.09.2026 away Bournemouth 2:2
- 05.09.2026 home Sunderland 1:1
- 30.08.2026 away Leeds 1:1
- 22.08.2026 home Tottenham 3:0
This season: Aston Villa at home vs Brentford away
| Metric | Aston Villa · at home | Brentford · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 0–0–2 | 0–2–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| xG for per match | 0.57 | 1.03 |
| xG against per match | 1.67 | 1.59 |
| Shots on target per match | 2.50 | 3.50 |
| Corners per match | 4.00 | 3.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 01.02.2026 Aston Villa 0:1 Brentford
- 23.08.2025 Brentford 1:0 Aston Villa
- 08.03.2025 Brentford 0:1 Aston Villa
- 04.12.2024 Aston Villa 3:1 Brentford
- 06.04.2024 Aston Villa 3:3 Brentford
- 17.12.2023 Brentford 1:2 Aston Villa
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Aston Villa host Brentford at a point in the season where the tables tell contrasting stories. The hosts sit 16th of 20 after five rounds, with just one win in their last five and a goal difference of four scored against nine conceded across that stretch. At home this season Aston Villa have played twice and lost twice, scoring once and conceding three. Brentford, by contrast, sit fourth on nine points, unbeaten in their last five with two wins and three draws, and have scored ten while shipping four over that run.
The head-to-head record leans slightly the other way: in six previous meetings Aston Villa have won three to Brentford's two, with one draw. However, the most recent encounter went to the visitors, who won 0-1, and Brentford's two away fixtures this season have both ended in draws. Both sides are described as allowing clearly more chances than they create, which caps expectations on either end.
Taken together, the picture is of two evenly matched teams with a moderate lean towards the visitors on current form, while Aston Villa's home history in this fixture keeps the contest open. A tight, medium-scoring match looks the most natural reading.
What matters before kick-off
Results prior to the international break
In their final Premier League match before the international break, Aston Villa defeated Tottenham Hotspur 3-2. Brentford recorded a 3-0 victory against Chelsea in their previous fixture.
Aston Villa team news
Aston Villa defender Ian Maatsen is ruled out due to an ankle injury, while midfielder Amadou Onana is sidelined with a knee issue.
Brentford availability update
Brentford midfielder Mikkel Damsgaard is unavailable for the match against Aston Villa due to an ankle injury.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.