Sunderland AFC — GNK Dinamo Zagreb: Win probabilities, 05.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
67.9%
Home win
Sunderland AFC
X
19.0%
Draw
W2
13.2%
Away win
GNK Dinamo Zagreb
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X86.8%
Both teams to score
Yes54.5%
Totals 2.5
Over62.4%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 86.8% |
| 12 | 81.0% | |
| X2 | 32.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.5% / 45.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.6% / 4.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.5% / 16.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 62.4% / 37.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 40.1% / 59.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.3% / 77.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.7% / 89.3% |
Goal distribution model
Sunderland AFC × GNK Dinamo Zagreb
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
4.4%
0:1
3.3%
0:2
1.7%
0:3
0.5%
0:4
0.1%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
8.8%
1:1
8.9%
1:2
3.9%
1:3
1.2%
1:4
0.3%
1:5
0.1%
2
2:0
10.6%
2:1
9.7%
2:2
4.5%
2:3
1.4%
2:4
0.3%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
8.1%
3:1
7.4%
3:2
3.4%
3:3
1.1%
3:4
0.2%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
4.6%
4:1
4.3%
4:2
2.0%
4:3
0.6%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
2.1%
5:1
2.0%
5:2
0.9%
5:3
0.3%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
2:010.6%
2:19.7%
1:18.9%
1:08.8%
3:08.1%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.11.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 home Leeds 0:0
- 18.10.2026 away Bournemouth 0:2
- 10.10.2026 home Brighton 0:2
- 20.09.2026 away Man City 3:5
- 12.09.2026 home Arsenal 0:2
GNK Dinamo Zagreb
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.10.2026 home NEC Nijmegen 2:4
- 15.10.2026 home RSC Anderlecht 1:0
- 16.09.2026 away Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC 0:0
- 11.08.2026 away FK Kauno Zalgiris 2:1
- 04.08.2026 home FK Kauno Zalgiris 5:0
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.