RC Celta de Vigo — Union Saint-Gilloise: Win probabilities, 05.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
48.4%
Home win
RC Celta de Vigo
X
23.8%
Draw
W2
27.8%
Away win
Union Saint-Gilloise
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1276.2%
Both teams to score
Yes60.4%
Totals 2.5
Over59.0%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 72.2% |
| 12 | 76.2% | |
| X2 | 51.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 60.4% / 39.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.1% / 4.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.2% / 18.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 59.0% / 41.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 36.6% / 63.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 19.5% / 80.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.0% / 91.0% |
Goal distribution model
RC Celta de Vigo × Union Saint-Gilloise
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
4.9%
0:1
5.8%
0:2
3.9%
0:3
1.7%
0:4
0.5%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
8.0%
1:1
11.0%
1:2
6.9%
1:3
3.0%
1:4
1.0%
1:5
0.2%
2
2:0
7.3%
2:1
9.5%
2:2
6.1%
2:3
2.6%
2:4
0.9%
2:5
0.2%
3
3:0
4.3%
3:1
5.6%
3:2
3.6%
3:3
1.6%
3:4
0.5%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
1.9%
4:1
2.5%
4:2
1.6%
4:3
0.7%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.7%
5:1
0.9%
5:2
0.6%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:111.0%
2:19.5%
1:08.0%
2:07.3%
1:26.9%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.11.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 home Betis 0:0
- 18.10.2026 home Alaves 2:1
- 11.10.2026 away Elche 0:0
- 19.09.2026 home Santander 5:0
- 13.09.2026 home Malaga 1:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 home Cercle Brugge 5:2
- 11.10.2026 home Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1:1
- 20.09.2026 away Antwerp 2:0
- 12.09.2026 home Lommel SK 5:0
- 05.09.2026 away Charleroi 3:2
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.