AZ Alkmaar — Juventus Turin: Win probabilities, 05.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
25.0%
Home win
AZ Alkmaar
X
26.5%
Draw
W2
48.5%
Away win
Juventus Turin
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
X275.0%
Both teams to score
Yes58.8%
Totals 2.5
Over56.0%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 51.5% |
| 12 | 73.5% | |
| X2 | 75.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.8% / 41.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.2% / 6.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.3% / 19.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 56.0% / 44.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 33.6% / 66.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.2% / 82.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.6% / 92.4% |
Goal distribution model
AZ Alkmaar × Juventus Turin
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
6.8%
0:1
7.9%
0:2
8.0%
0:3
4.6%
0:4
2.0%
0:5
0.7%
1
1:0
5.0%
1:1
12.5%
1:2
9.6%
1:3
5.5%
1:4
2.4%
1:5
0.8%
2
2:0
3.8%
2:1
6.6%
2:2
5.7%
2:3
3.3%
2:4
1.4%
2:5
0.5%
3
3:0
1.5%
3:1
2.6%
3:2
2.3%
3:3
1.3%
3:4
0.6%
3:5
0.2%
4
4:0
0.5%
4:1
0.8%
4:2
0.7%
4:3
0.4%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.1%
5:1
0.2%
5:2
0.2%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:112.5%
1:29.6%
0:28.0%
0:17.9%
0:06.8%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.11.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 home Twente 0:2
- 18.10.2026 away Cambuur 2:2
- 10.10.2026 away Feyenoord 0:2
- 20.09.2026 home Telstar 1:0
- 11.09.2026 home Willem II 1:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 away Lecce 2:0
- 18.10.2026 home Lazio 0:3
- 11.10.2026 away Cagliari 1:1
- 20.09.2026 home Atalanta 2:0
- 13.09.2026 away Sassuolo 2:3
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.