Celtic Glasgow — Besiktas Istanbul: Win probabilities, 05.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
33.0%
Home win
Celtic Glasgow
X
25.2%
Draw
W2
41.8%
Away win
Besiktas Istanbul
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1274.8%
Both teams to score
Yes64.2%
Totals 2.5
Over61.8%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 58.2% |
| 12 | 74.8% | |
| X2 | 67.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.2% / 35.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.0% / 5.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.7% / 16.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.8% / 38.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 39.5% / 60.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.7% / 78.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.4% / 89.6% |
Goal distribution model
Celtic Glasgow × Besiktas Istanbul
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
5.0%
0:1
6.1%
0:2
5.9%
0:3
3.4%
0:4
1.4%
0:5
0.5%
1
1:0
5.2%
1:1
11.4%
1:2
8.9%
1:3
5.0%
1:4
2.1%
1:5
0.7%
2
2:0
4.6%
2:1
7.8%
2:2
6.6%
2:3
3.7%
2:4
1.6%
2:5
0.5%
3
3:0
2.3%
3:1
3.9%
3:2
3.3%
3:3
1.9%
3:4
0.8%
3:5
0.3%
4
4:0
0.9%
4:1
1.4%
4:2
1.2%
4:3
0.7%
4:4
0.3%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.3%
5:1
0.4%
5:2
0.4%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:111.4%
1:28.9%
2:17.8%
2:26.6%
0:16.1%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.11.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 away Hibernian 2:1
- 18.10.2026 home Hearts 7:1
- 11.10.2026 away Motherwell 2:0
- 20.09.2026 home Rangers 0:1
- 09.09.2026 away St Johnstone 1:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 26.10.2026 home Buyuksehyr 2:0
- 19.10.2026 away Trabzonspor 0:2
- 11.10.2026 home Kocaelispor 2:1
- 20.09.2026 away Amedspor 2:3
- 11.09.2026 home Erzurumspor 3:0
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.