SL Benfica — KKS Lech Poznan: Win probabilities, 05.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
82.6%
Home win
SL Benfica
X
11.6%
Draw
W2
5.8%
Away win
KKS Lech Poznan
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X94.2%
Both teams to score
No50.3%
Totals 2.5
Over72.5%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 94.2% |
| 12 | 88.4% | |
| X2 | 17.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 49.7% / 50.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.4% / 2.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.1% / 10.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 72.5% / 27.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 51.8% / 48.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 32.4% / 67.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 17.8% / 82.2% |
Goal distribution model
SL Benfica × KKS Lech Poznan
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
2.6%
0:1
1.5%
0:2
0.6%
0:3
0.2%
0:4
0.0%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
6.8%
1:1
5.4%
1:2
1.9%
1:3
0.5%
1:4
0.1%
1:5
0.0%
2
2:0
10.7%
2:1
7.8%
2:2
2.9%
2:3
0.7%
2:4
0.1%
2:5
0.0%
3
3:0
10.8%
3:1
7.9%
3:2
2.9%
3:3
0.7%
3:4
0.1%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
8.1%
4:1
6.0%
4:2
2.2%
4:3
0.5%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
4.9%
5:1
3.6%
5:2
1.3%
5:3
0.3%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
3:010.8%
2:010.7%
4:08.2%
3:17.9%
2:17.8%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.11.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 26.10.2026 away Santa Clara 2:1
- 11.10.2026 home Guimaraes 2:0
- 20.09.2026 away Porto 1:3
- 13.09.2026 home Gil Vicente 3:1
- 09.09.2026 away Moreirense 4:0
KKS Lech Poznan
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.10.2026 home Sunderland AFC 1:1
- 15.10.2026 home Bayer Leverkusen 0:4
- 17.09.2026 away Crystal Palace 0:4
- 14.08.2026 away KI Klaksvik 5:0
- 06.08.2026 home KI Klaksvik 1:0
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.