Bayer Leverkusen — Olympique Marseille: Win probabilities, 05.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
68.9%
Home win
Bayer Leverkusen
X
17.9%
Draw
W2
13.2%
Away win
Olympique Marseille
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X86.8%
Both teams to score
Yes58.5%
Totals 2.5
Over67.5%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 86.8% |
| 12 | 82.1% | |
| X2 | 31.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.5% / 41.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.5% / 3.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.6% / 13.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 67.5% / 32.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 45.9% / 54.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 27.0% / 73.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.0% / 86.0% |
Goal distribution model
Bayer Leverkusen × Olympique Marseille
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
3.5%
0:1
2.7%
0:2
1.6%
0:3
0.5%
0:4
0.1%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
7.2%
1:1
8.1%
1:2
3.9%
1:3
1.3%
1:4
0.3%
1:5
0.1%
2
2:0
9.4%
2:1
9.5%
2:2
4.8%
2:3
1.6%
2:4
0.4%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
7.7%
3:1
7.8%
3:2
3.9%
3:3
1.3%
3:4
0.3%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
4.8%
4:1
4.8%
4:2
2.4%
4:3
0.8%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
2.4%
5:1
2.4%
5:2
1.2%
5:3
0.4%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
2:19.5%
2:09.4%
1:18.1%
3:17.8%
3:07.7%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.11.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 away Hoffenheim 0:3
- 18.10.2026 home Freiburg 2:1
- 10.10.2026 away Mainz 4:3
- 20.09.2026 home RB Leipzig 2:0
- 12.09.2026 away Augsburg 2:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 home Le Havre 4:3
- 18.10.2026 away Angers 5:2
- 11.10.2026 away Troyes 2:0
- 20.09.2026 home Paris SG 1:2
- 11.09.2026 away Rennes 0:1
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.