Sunderland AFC — AZ Alkmaar: Win probabilities, 16.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 86.5% |
| 12 | 79.2% | |
| X2 | 34.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.5% / 48.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.3% / 5.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.5% / 19.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 57.3% / 42.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 34.9% / 65.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.2% / 81.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.2% / 91.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 16.09.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 home Arsenal 0:2
- 05.09.2026 away Brentford 1:1
- 30.08.2026 home Fulham 1:0
- 22.08.2026 away Ipswich 1:2
- 24.05.2026 home Chelsea 2:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 11.09.2026 home Willem II 1:1
- 06.09.2026 away Heerenveen 3:2
- 29.08.2026 home Go Ahead Eagles 5:2
- 22.08.2026 away For Sittard 2:0
- 15.08.2026 away Utrecht 4:1
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Sunderland AFC face AZ Alkmaar in the UEFA Europa League with the available assessment giving the home side a clear, though not overwhelming, advantage. The outcome signal points towards Sunderland AFC, while the moderate confidence level suggests that this should be viewed as a measured preference rather than a definitive prediction. AZ Alkmaar remain capable of making the contest competitive, so the balance is not entirely one-sided.
The match is projected to fall into a medium-scoring pattern. Both teams scoring is considered finely balanced, leaving room for either a controlled Sunderland AFC performance or a more open exchange if AZ Alkmaar find a way to contribute. The scoreline range centres on a Sunderland AFC victory, with 2-0, 2-1 and 1-0 identified as the most plausible outcomes. Overall, the hosts have the stronger profile in this assessment, but the margin appears narrow enough for the visitors to influence the match.
What matters before kick-off
Return to European competition
Sunderland are playing their first UEFA European match in 53 years, marking their return to continental competition for the first time since 1973.
Sunderland team availability
Sunderland remain without the injured Habib Diarra and Romaine Mundle. Defender Reinildo Mandava is available as his red-card suspension applies only to domestic fixtures.
AZ Alkmaar injury list
AZ Alkmaar travel without Kees Smit and Denso Kasius due to groin issues, while Stije Resink remains sidelined with a knee injury.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.