Olympiacos Piraeus — Jagiellonia Bialystok: Win probabilities, 16.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 93.4% |
| 12 | 83.7% | |
| X2 | 23.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 45.3% / 54.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.9% / 5.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.6% / 16.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.7% / 38.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 39.4% / 60.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.6% / 78.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.3% / 89.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Olympiacos Piraeus enter this UEFA Europa League meeting with a clear advantage in the assessment, and the high confidence level points to the hosts being clearly stronger than Jagiellonia Bialystok. The projected balance suggests Olympiacos Piraeus should control more of the match, create the more consistent attacking pressure, and give Jagiellonia Bialystok limited room to impose their own approach.
The scoring outlook is high, although the expectation that both teams will score remains evenly balanced rather than pointing firmly in either direction. That combination makes a home win with a clean sheet a plausible match pattern, while a more open contest is also possible if Jagiellonia Bialystok find ways to respond in attack. The indicated scorelines of 2:0, 3:0, and 1:0 all reflect the same central theme: Olympiacos Piraeus are expected to have the stronger platform, with the main uncertainty concerning the margin of victory and whether the visitors can contribute to the scoring.
What matters before kick-off
Managerial change and recent result for Olympiacos
Manager Imanol Alguacil took charge of Olympiacos on September 10, replacing José Luis Mendilibar, and lost his first game 1-0 at home to OFI Crete on September 12.
Recent result for Jagiellonia
Adrian Siemieniec's Jagiellonia Białystok enter the match following a 2-0 domestic defeat away against Wisła Kraków on September 11.
First competitive meeting
This UEFA Europa League fixture marks the first-ever competitive head-to-head meeting between Olympiacos and Jagiellonia Białystok.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.