SK Sturm Graz — Stade Rennais FC: Win probabilities, 16.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 44.3% |
| 12 | 76.5% | |
| X2 | 79.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 65.5% / 34.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.3% / 4.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.3% / 12.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 66.8% / 33.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 45.1% / 54.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 26.4% / 73.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.5% / 86.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 16.09.2026
SK Sturm Graz
Last 3 matches · latest first
- 11.08.2026 home Fenerbahce Istanbul 0:1
- 05.08.2026 away Fenerbahce Istanbul 0:2
- 28.07.2026 away Heart of Midlothian FC 2:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 11.09.2026 home Marseille 1:0
- 06.09.2026 away Angers 2:1
- 30.08.2026 home Le Mans 3:2
- 23.08.2026 home Paris SG 2:2
- 17.05.2026 away Marseille 1:3
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
SK Sturm Graz face Stade Rennais FC in a UEFA Europa League meeting that projects as an open and competitive contest. The available assessment gives Stade Rennais FC a slight edge, with the away side expected to be more likely to avoid defeat. That advantage is meaningful, though the matchup does not point to a one-sided game, and SK Sturm Graz should have opportunities to challenge the visitors.
The scoring outlook is high, with both teams likely to find the net. That makes a draw a credible possibility, particularly in a game where attacking intent may create chances at both ends. A 1-1 scoreline fits that balance, while 1-2 and 0-2 reflect the stronger away-side signal. Overall, Stade Rennais FC appear better positioned, but SK Sturm Graz remain capable of keeping the contest close.
What matters before kick-off
Sturm Graz schedule and recent result
Sturm Graz defeated LASK 2-1 in the Austrian Bundesliga on September 13, entering the Europa League league phase after dropping out of Champions League qualifying against Fenerbahçe.
Stade Rennais form and schedule context
Rennes head into Europa League matchday one following an impressive start in Ligue 1, including a 1-0 victory against Marseille on September 11, holding a 48-hour preparation advantage over Sturm Graz.
First head-to-head meeting
This match marks the first-ever competitive head-to-head meeting between Sturm Graz and Stade Rennais.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.