AC Milan — SL Benfica: Win probabilities, 16.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 69.7% |
| 12 | 74.9% | |
| X2 | 55.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.9% / 37.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.8% / 5.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.9% / 17.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 60.6% / 39.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 38.3% / 61.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 20.8% / 79.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.8% / 90.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 16.09.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 away Lazio 2:2
- 06.09.2026 away Juventus 1:1
- 28.08.2026 home Venezia 2:0
- 23.08.2026 away Torino 2:1
- 24.05.2026 home Cagliari 1:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 13.09.2026 home Gil Vicente 3:1
- 09.09.2026 away Moreirense 4:0
- 05.09.2026 away Maritimo 3:0
- 31.08.2026 home Estoril 2:1
- 17.08.2026 away Casa Pia 7:0
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
AC Milan and SL Benfica meet in the UEFA Europa League on 16 September 2026 in a contest that looks evenly matched. Neither side holds a decisive advantage in the available assessment, so the match may be shaped by small tactical details, periods of pressure, and how effectively each team manages transitions. The moderate confidence level points to a competitive game rather than a clear forecast.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, with both teams likely to find the net. That suggests an open enough match for chances at both ends, although the balance between AC Milan’s home setting and SL Benfica’s challenge makes a narrow margin more plausible than a one-sided result. The main scoreline possibilities are 1:1, 2:1, and 1:2, reflecting the uncertainty around the final outcome. Overall, the assessment gives a slight edge to the home side in the result market, while keeping a draw firmly in consideration.
What matters before kick-off
Historical European Cup final rivalry
AC Milan and Benfica contested the European Cup final in both 1963 and 1990. Benfica have never beaten AC Milan in six competitive encounters between the two clubs.
AC Milan's unbeaten start to the campaign
AC Milan enter their European campaign undefeated so far this season under Ruben Amorim. Prior to the match, they recorded back-to-back league draws against Juventus (1-1) and Lazio (2-2).
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.