RSC Anderlecht — Olympique Lyon: Win probabilities, 16.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 58.4% |
| 12 | 74.1% | |
| X2 | 67.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.3% / 36.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.4% / 5.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.0% / 17.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 60.4% / 39.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 38.0% / 62.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 20.6% / 79.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.7% / 90.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 16.09.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 11.09.2026 away Mechelen 1:0
- 06.09.2026 home Genk 0:0
- 03.09.2026 home Kortrijk 1:0
- 30.08.2026 away St. Gilloise 0:3
- 16.08.2026 away Beveren 0:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 away Paris FC 0:0
- 04.09.2026 home Auxerre 3:1
- 29.08.2026 home Le Havre 1:1
- 22.08.2026 away Toulouse 2:0
- 17.05.2026 home Lens 0:4
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
RSC Anderlecht and Olympique Lyon are rated as evenly matched in this UEFA Europa League meeting, with only moderate confidence behind that assessment. The available outlook points to a competitive contest rather than a clear advantage for either side. The market signal gives Olympique Lyon a slight edge in avoiding defeat, but the overall evaluation still leaves room for a home win or a draw.
The match is projected to be medium-scoring, and both teams are considered likely to find the net. That combination suggests an open enough game for chances at both ends, while neither side is expected to control the outcome decisively. The leading scoreline is 1:1, with 1:2 and 2:1 also among the plausible scenarios. RSC Anderlecht will have home advantage in the fixture scheduled for 16 September 2026, while Olympique Lyon enter with the marginally stronger result signal.
What matters before kick-off
Europa League league phase opener
Anderlecht host Olympique Lyonnais at Lotto Park in Brussels for the opening matchday of the 2026/27 UEFA Europa League league phase.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.