Bayer Leverkusen — NK Celje: Win probabilities, 16.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 98.6% |
| 12 | 96.2% | |
| X2 | 5.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 36.9% / 63.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 99.2% / 0.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 94.5% / 5.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 84.2% / 15.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 68.2% / 31.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 49.5% / 50.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 32.1% / 67.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 16.09.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 away Augsburg 2:2
- 05.09.2026 home Union Berlin 4:0
- 29.08.2026 away Elversberg 2:3
- 16.05.2026 home Hamburg 1:1
- 09.05.2026 away Stuttgart 1:3
NK Celje
Last 3 matches · latest first
- 11.08.2026 home FC Ararat-Armenia 2:0
- 04.08.2026 away FC Ararat-Armenia 1:2
- 28.07.2026 home KF Egnatia Rrogozhine 6:3
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Bayer Leverkusen enter this UEFA Europa League meeting with a clear strength advantage over NK Celje. The qualitative assessment points to a high-confidence home outlook, with Bayer Leverkusen expected to control the match through sustained pressure and a stronger attacking threat. NK Celje may face long periods without the ball and will need to remain disciplined to limit the hosts’ opportunities.
The game is projected to be high-scoring, although the balance of the assessment suggests that most of the danger should come from Bayer Leverkusen. A clean sheet for the home side is considered likely, indicating that NK Celje may struggle to create enough clear chances to respond. The central expectation is therefore a commanding performance from Bayer Leverkusen, with NK Celje focused primarily on defensive organisation and limiting the margin.
What matters before kick-off
Europa League Matchday 1 fixture
Bayer Leverkusen host Slovenian side NK Celje at the BayArena on September 16, 2026, in Matchday 1 of the UEFA Europa League league phase.
Bayer Leverkusen's early-season scoring record
Bayer Leverkusen scored eight goals across their first three Bundesliga matchdays of the season, registering at least two goals in every game.
NK Celje's European qualifying path
NK Celje reached the main European stage after navigating through qualifying rounds this season, which included a 3-2 aggregate victory over Ararat-Armenia.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.