Strasbourg Alsace — Paris Saint-Germain: Win probabilities, 17.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
13.8%
Home win
Strasbourg Alsace
X
16.7%
Draw
W2
69.5%
Away win
Paris Saint-Germain
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
X286.2%
Both teams to score
Yes65.3%
Totals 2.5
Over75.0%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 30.5% |
| 12 | 83.3% | |
| X2 | 86.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 65.3% / 34.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.7% / 2.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 90.6% / 9.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 75.0% / 25.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 55.0% / 45.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 35.5% / 64.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 20.2% / 79.8% |
Goal distribution model
Strasbourg Alsace × Paris Saint-Germain
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
2.3%
0:1
5.1%
0:2
7.4%
0:3
6.7%
0:4
4.6%
0:5
2.5%
1
1:0
2.0%
1:1
6.8%
1:2
8.8%
1:3
8.0%
1:4
5.5%
1:5
3.0%
2
2:0
1.4%
2:1
3.8%
2:2
5.2%
2:3
4.8%
2:4
3.2%
2:5
1.8%
3
3:0
0.6%
3:1
1.5%
3:2
2.1%
3:3
1.9%
3:4
1.3%
3:5
0.7%
4
4:0
0.2%
4:1
0.4%
4:2
0.6%
4:3
0.6%
4:4
0.4%
4:5
0.2%
5
5:0
0.0%
5:1
0.1%
5:2
0.1%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:28.8%
1:38.0%
0:27.4%
1:16.8%
0:36.7%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.10.2026
Strasbourg Alsace
8th place · 7 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Paris FC 1:2
- 12.09.2026 home Monaco 1:1
- 06.09.2026 away Troyes 6:2
- 29.08.2026 home Lens 2:1
- 21.08.2026 away Marseille 0:4
Paris Saint-Germain
6th place · 8 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Marseille 2:1
- 13.09.2026 away Brest 1:0
- 04.09.2026 home Monaco 1:2
- 28.08.2026 away Lille 2:2
- 23.08.2026 away Rennes 2:2
This season: Strasbourg Alsace at home vs Paris Saint-Germain away
| Metric | Strasbourg Alsace · at home | Paris Saint-Germain · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 1–1–0 | 2–2–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.50 | 1.75 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| xG for per match | 1.34 | 2.47 |
| xG against per match | 1.97 | 1.34 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.50 | 6.50 |
| Corners per match | 2.50 | 6.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 75% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Strasbourg Alsace wins1
Draws1
Paris Saint-Germain wins4
Goals per match4.00
Both teams scored5/6
Over 2.5 goals6/6
- 01.02.2026 Strasbourg Alsace 1:2 Paris Saint-Germain
- 17.10.2025 Paris Saint-Germain 3:3 Strasbourg Alsace
- 03.05.2025 Strasbourg Alsace 2:1 Paris Saint-Germain
- 19.10.2024 Paris Saint-Germain 4:2 Strasbourg Alsace
- 02.02.2024 Strasbourg Alsace 1:2 Paris Saint-Germain
- 21.10.2023 Paris Saint-Germain 3:0 Strasbourg Alsace
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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