FC Lorient — AS Monaco: Win probabilities, 18.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
28.0%
Home win
FC Lorient
X
25.5%
Draw
W2
46.5%
Away win
AS Monaco
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1274.5%
Both teams to score
Yes55.9%
Totals 2.5
Over52.8%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 53.5% |
| 12 | 74.5% | |
| X2 | 72.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.9% / 44.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.5% / 6.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.1% / 22.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 52.8% / 47.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.6% / 69.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.1% / 84.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.4% / 93.6% |
Goal distribution model
FC Lorient × AS Monaco
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
6.5%
0:1
9.4%
0:2
7.9%
0:3
4.2%
0:4
1.7%
0:5
0.5%
1
1:0
6.9%
1:1
12.1%
1:2
9.4%
1:3
5.0%
1:4
2.0%
1:5
0.6%
2
2:0
4.3%
2:1
7.0%
2:2
5.6%
2:3
3.0%
2:4
1.2%
2:5
0.4%
3
3:0
1.7%
3:1
2.8%
3:2
2.2%
3:3
1.2%
3:4
0.5%
3:5
0.2%
4
4:0
0.5%
4:1
0.8%
4:2
0.7%
4:3
0.4%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.1%
5:1
0.2%
5:2
0.2%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:112.1%
0:19.4%
1:29.4%
0:27.9%
2:17.0%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 18.10.2026
FC Lorient
12th place · 5 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Le Mans 1:2
- 12.09.2026 home Toulouse 2:2
- 05.09.2026 away Lens 1:0
- 29.08.2026 home Troyes 1:2
- 22.08.2026 away Nice 0:0
AS Monaco
1st place · 13 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.09.2026 home Lens 2:1
- 12.09.2026 away Strasbourg 1:1
- 04.09.2026 away Paris SG 2:1
- 30.08.2026 home Marseille 2:0
- 23.08.2026 away Le Havre 1:0
This season: FC Lorient at home vs AS Monaco away
| Metric | FC Lorient · at home | AS Monaco · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–1 | 2–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.50 | 1.33 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 0.67 |
| xG for per match | 1.01 | 0.98 |
| xG against per match | 1.60 | 1.31 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.50 | 4.00 |
| Corners per match | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
FC Lorient wins2
Draws3
AS Monaco wins1
Goals per match4.00
Both teams scored6/6
Over 2.5 goals6/6
- 16.01.2026 AS Monaco 1:3 FC Lorient
- 27.09.2025 FC Lorient 3:1 AS Monaco
- 17.03.2024 AS Monaco 2:2 FC Lorient
- 17.09.2023 FC Lorient 2:2 AS Monaco
- 16.04.2023 AS Monaco 3:1 FC Lorient
- 11.01.2023 FC Lorient 2:2 AS Monaco
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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