Lille OSC — Stade Brest 29: Win probabilities, 17.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
53.6%
Home win
Lille OSC
X
24.6%
Draw
W2
21.8%
Away win
Stade Brest 29
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X78.2%
Both teams to score
Yes59.5%
Totals 2.5
Over59.1%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 78.2% |
| 12 | 75.4% | |
| X2 | 46.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.5% / 40.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.2% / 5.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.2% / 17.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 59.1% / 40.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 36.7% / 63.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 19.5% / 80.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.0% / 91.0% |
Goal distribution model
Lille OSC × Stade Brest 29
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
5.8%
0:1
4.3%
0:2
3.1%
0:3
1.2%
0:4
0.4%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
7.7%
1:1
11.5%
1:2
6.0%
1:3
2.3%
1:4
0.7%
1:5
0.2%
2
2:0
8.5%
2:1
9.8%
2:2
5.7%
2:3
2.2%
2:4
0.6%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
5.4%
3:1
6.2%
3:2
3.6%
3:3
1.4%
3:4
0.4%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
2.6%
4:1
3.0%
4:2
1.7%
4:3
0.7%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
1.0%
5:1
1.1%
5:2
0.7%
5:3
0.3%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:111.5%
2:19.8%
2:08.5%
1:07.7%
3:16.2%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.10.2026
Lille OSC
4th place · 10 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Nice 1:2
- 13.09.2026 home Troyes 2:0
- 03.09.2026 away Toulouse 1:0
- 28.08.2026 home Paris SG 2:2
- 23.08.2026 away Angers 2:0
Stade Brest 29
11th place · 5 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Auxerre 1:2
- 13.09.2026 home Paris SG 0:1
- 05.09.2026 away Le Havre 2:1
- 29.08.2026 home Toulouse 2:2
- 22.08.2026 away Le Mans 2:2
This season: Lille OSC at home vs Stade Brest 29 away
| Metric | Lille OSC · at home | Stade Brest 29 · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 1–1–0 | 1–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 1.67 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| xG for per match | 1.42 | 1.81 |
| xG against per match | 0.94 | 1.21 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| Corners per match | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Lille OSC wins2
Draws3
Stade Brest 29 wins1
Goals per match2.83
Both teams scored4/6
Over 2.5 goals2/6
- 14.02.2026 Lille OSC 1:1 Stade Brest 29
- 17.08.2025 Stade Brest 29 3:3 Lille OSC
- 10.05.2025 Stade Brest 29 2:0 Lille OSC
- 06.12.2024 Lille OSC 3:1 Stade Brest 29
- 17.03.2024 Stade Brest 29 1:1 Lille OSC
- 22.10.2023 Lille OSC 1:0 Stade Brest 29
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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