Angers SCO — Olympique Marseille: Win probabilities, 18.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
28.3%
Home win
Angers SCO
X
25.4%
Draw
W2
46.4%
Away win
Olympique Marseille
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1274.6%
Both teams to score
Yes64.3%
Totals 2.5
Over62.3%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 53.6% |
| 12 | 74.6% | |
| X2 | 71.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.3% / 35.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.7% / 5.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.3% / 15.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 62.3% / 37.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 40.1% / 59.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.2% / 77.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.7% / 89.3% |
Goal distribution model
Angers SCO × Olympique Marseille
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
5.3%
0:1
6.1%
0:2
6.7%
0:3
4.0%
0:4
1.8%
0:5
0.7%
1
1:0
4.3%
1:1
11.5%
1:2
9.3%
1:3
5.6%
1:4
2.6%
1:5
0.9%
2
2:0
3.9%
2:1
7.1%
2:2
6.5%
2:3
3.9%
2:4
1.8%
2:5
0.6%
3
3:0
1.8%
3:1
3.3%
3:2
3.0%
3:3
1.8%
3:4
0.8%
3:5
0.3%
4
4:0
0.6%
4:1
1.2%
4:2
1.0%
4:3
0.6%
4:4
0.3%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.2%
5:1
0.3%
5:2
0.3%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:111.5%
1:29.3%
2:17.1%
0:26.7%
2:26.5%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 18.10.2026
Angers SCO
7th place · 7 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Troyes 2:0
- 12.09.2026 away Le Havre 0:0
- 06.09.2026 home Rennes 1:2
- 29.08.2026 away Auxerre 3:1
- 23.08.2026 home Lille 0:2
Olympique Marseille
17th place · 3 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Paris SG 1:2
- 11.09.2026 away Rennes 0:1
- 06.09.2026 home Paris FC 2:3
- 30.08.2026 away Monaco 0:2
- 21.08.2026 home Strasbourg 4:0
This season: Angers SCO at home vs Olympique Marseille away
| Metric | Angers SCO · at home | Olympique Marseille · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–2 | 0–0–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| xG for per match | 1.96 | 1.28 |
| xG against per match | 1.27 | 1.69 |
| Shots on target per match | 2.67 | 3.50 |
| Corners per match | 7.33 | 6.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Angers SCO wins0
Draws2
Olympique Marseille wins4
Goals per match3.67
Both teams scored4/6
Over 2.5 goals4/6
- 17.01.2026 Angers SCO 2:5 Olympique Marseille
- 29.10.2025 Olympique Marseille 2:2 Angers SCO
- 09.02.2025 Angers SCO 0:2 Olympique Marseille
- 04.10.2024 Olympique Marseille 1:1 Angers SCO
- 14.05.2023 Olympique Marseille 3:1 Angers SCO
- 30.09.2022 Angers SCO 0:3 Olympique Marseille
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 3.10 → now 3.25 |
| W2 | was 2.15 → now 2.05 |
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