Olympique Lyon — OGC Nice: Win probabilities, 18.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
58.6%
Home win
Olympique Lyon
X
24.4%
Draw
W2
17.0%
Away win
OGC Nice
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X83.0%
Both teams to score
Yes59.6%
Totals 2.5
Over61.1%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 83.0% |
| 12 | 75.6% | |
| X2 | 41.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.6% / 40.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.9% / 6.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.2% / 15.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.1% / 38.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 38.8% / 61.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.2% / 78.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.1% / 89.9% |
Goal distribution model
Olympique Lyon × OGC Nice
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
6.1%
0:1
2.7%
0:2
2.5%
0:3
0.9%
0:4
0.2%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
7.0%
1:1
11.4%
1:2
5.1%
1:3
1.8%
1:4
0.5%
1:5
0.1%
2
2:0
9.2%
2:1
9.9%
2:2
5.3%
2:3
1.9%
2:4
0.5%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
6.4%
3:1
6.9%
3:2
3.7%
3:3
1.3%
3:4
0.4%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
3.3%
4:1
3.6%
4:2
1.9%
4:3
0.7%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
1.4%
5:1
1.5%
5:2
0.8%
5:3
0.3%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:111.4%
2:19.9%
2:09.2%
1:07.0%
3:16.9%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 18.10.2026
Olympique Lyon
2nd place · 11 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Rennes 4:0
- 12.09.2026 away Paris FC 0:0
- 04.09.2026 home Auxerre 3:1
- 29.08.2026 home Le Havre 1:1
- 22.08.2026 away Toulouse 2:0
OGC Nice
14th place · 5 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Lille 2:1
- 12.09.2026 away Auxerre 0:1
- 05.09.2026 home Le Mans 1:1
- 30.08.2026 away Paris FC 0:3
- 22.08.2026 home Lorient 0:0
This season: Olympique Lyon at home vs OGC Nice away
| Metric | Olympique Lyon · at home | OGC Nice · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 2–1–0 | 0–0–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.67 | 0.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.67 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 2.55 | 0.87 |
| xG against per match | 0.92 | 2.31 |
| Shots on target per match | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| Corners per match | 5.67 | 6.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Olympique Lyon wins4
Draws1
OGC Nice wins1
Goals per match2.50
Both teams scored2/6
Over 2.5 goals2/6
- 15.02.2026 Olympique Lyon 2:0 OGC Nice
- 18.10.2025 OGC Nice 3:2 Olympique Lyon
- 09.03.2025 OGC Nice 0:2 Olympique Lyon
- 01.12.2024 Olympique Lyon 4:1 OGC Nice
- 16.02.2024 Olympique Lyon 1:0 OGC Nice
- 27.08.2023 OGC Nice 0:0 Olympique Lyon
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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