Le Havre AC — AJ Auxerre: Win probabilities, 18.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
38.5%
Home win
Le Havre AC
X
28.1%
Draw
W2
33.4%
Away win
AJ Auxerre
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1271.9%
Both teams to score
Yes58.5%
Totals 2.5
Over53.5%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 66.6% |
| 12 | 71.9% | |
| X2 | 61.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.5% / 41.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.6% / 7.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.7% / 21.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.5% / 46.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.2% / 68.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.5% / 84.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.7% / 93.3% |
Goal distribution model
Le Havre AC × AJ Auxerre
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
7.4%
0:1
6.6%
0:2
5.5%
0:3
2.5%
0:4
0.8%
0:5
0.2%
1
1:0
7.3%
1:1
13.3%
1:2
8.0%
1:3
3.6%
1:4
1.2%
1:5
0.3%
2
2:0
6.4%
2:1
8.7%
2:2
5.9%
2:3
2.6%
2:4
0.9%
2:5
0.2%
3
3:0
3.1%
3:1
4.2%
3:2
2.9%
3:3
1.3%
3:4
0.4%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
1.1%
4:1
1.6%
4:2
1.1%
4:3
0.5%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.3%
5:1
0.5%
5:2
0.3%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:113.3%
2:18.7%
1:28.0%
0:07.4%
1:07.3%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 18.10.2026
Le Havre AC
18th place · 2 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Toulouse 2:3
- 12.09.2026 home Angers 0:0
- 05.09.2026 home Brest 1:2
- 29.08.2026 away Lyon 1:1
- 23.08.2026 home Monaco 0:1
AJ Auxerre
10th place · 6 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Brest 2:1
- 12.09.2026 home Nice 1:0
- 04.09.2026 away Lyon 1:3
- 29.08.2026 home Angers 1:3
- 22.08.2026 away Lens 2:5
This season: Le Havre AC at home vs AJ Auxerre away
| Metric | Le Havre AC · at home | AJ Auxerre · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–2 | 0–0–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.33 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.31 | 1.28 |
| xG against per match | 1.45 | 3.64 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.67 | 3.50 |
| Corners per match | 5.33 | 6.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Le Havre AC wins4
Draws1
AJ Auxerre wins1
Goals per match3.00
Both teams scored5/6
Over 2.5 goals4/6
- 05.04.2026 Le Havre AC 1:1 AJ Auxerre
- 26.10.2025 AJ Auxerre 0:1 Le Havre AC
- 04.05.2025 AJ Auxerre 1:2 Le Havre AC
- 01.09.2024 Le Havre AC 3:1 AJ Auxerre
- 07.05.2022 Le Havre AC 1:2 AJ Auxerre
- 21.12.2021 AJ Auxerre 2:3 Le Havre AC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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