ESTAC Troyes — Racing Club De Lens: Win probabilities, 17.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
22.7%
Home win
ESTAC Troyes
X
24.0%
Draw
W2
53.3%
Away win
Racing Club De Lens
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
X277.3%
Both teams to score
Yes63.3%
Totals 2.5
Over63.5%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 46.7% |
| 12 | 76.0% | |
| X2 | 77.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.3% / 36.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.0% / 5.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.0% / 15.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 63.5% / 36.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 41.3% / 58.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.2% / 76.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.4% / 88.6% |
Goal distribution model
ESTAC Troyes × Racing Club De Lens
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
5.0%
0:1
6.4%
0:2
7.6%
0:3
5.1%
0:4
2.6%
0:5
1.0%
1
1:0
3.6%
1:1
10.8%
1:2
9.7%
1:3
6.5%
1:4
3.2%
1:5
1.3%
2
2:0
3.0%
2:1
6.1%
2:2
6.1%
2:3
4.1%
2:4
2.0%
2:5
0.8%
3
3:0
1.3%
3:1
2.6%
3:2
2.6%
3:3
1.7%
3:4
0.9%
3:5
0.3%
4
4:0
0.4%
4:1
0.8%
4:2
0.8%
4:3
0.5%
4:4
0.3%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.1%
5:1
0.2%
5:2
0.2%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:110.8%
1:29.7%
0:27.6%
1:36.5%
0:16.4%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.10.2026
ESTAC Troyes
16th place · 4 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Angers 0:2
- 13.09.2026 away Lille 0:2
- 06.09.2026 home Strasbourg 2:6
- 29.08.2026 away Lorient 2:1
- 22.08.2026 home Paris FC 0:0
Racing Club De Lens
15th place · 4 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.09.2026 away Monaco 1:2
- 13.09.2026 away Le Mans 2:2
- 05.09.2026 home Lorient 0:1
- 29.08.2026 away Strasbourg 1:2
- 22.08.2026 home Auxerre 5:2
This season: ESTAC Troyes at home vs Racing Club De Lens away
| Metric | ESTAC Troyes · at home | Racing Club De Lens · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–1 | 0–1–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Goals conceded per match | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.68 | 1.85 |
| xG against per match | 2.38 | 1.89 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.00 | 5.67 |
| Corners per match | 8.50 | 7.67 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
ESTAC Troyes wins1
Draws1
Racing Club De Lens wins4
Goals per match2.33
Both teams scored2/6
Over 2.5 goals2/6
- 28.01.2023 ESTAC Troyes 1:1 Racing Club De Lens
- 09.09.2022 Racing Club De Lens 1:0 ESTAC Troyes
- 14.05.2022 ESTAC Troyes 1:3 Racing Club De Lens
- 05.11.2021 Racing Club De Lens 4:0 ESTAC Troyes
- 04.02.2020 Racing Club De Lens 1:0 ESTAC Troyes
- 24.08.2019 ESTAC Troyes 2:0 Racing Club De Lens
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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