Le Mans FC — Toulouse FC: Win probabilities, 16.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
32.3%
Home win
Le Mans FC
X
26.4%
Draw
W2
41.3%
Away win
Toulouse FC
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1273.6%
Both teams to score
Yes61.5%
Totals 2.5
Over57.9%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 58.7% |
| 12 | 73.6% | |
| X2 | 67.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 61.5% / 38.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.9% / 6.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.4% / 18.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 57.9% / 42.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 35.5% / 64.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.7% / 81.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.5% / 91.5% |
Goal distribution model
Le Mans FC × Toulouse FC
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
6.1%
0:1
6.8%
0:2
6.4%
0:3
3.4%
0:4
1.4%
0:5
0.4%
1
1:0
5.7%
1:1
12.3%
1:2
8.9%
1:3
4.8%
1:4
1.9%
1:5
0.6%
2
2:0
4.8%
2:1
7.8%
2:2
6.3%
2:3
3.4%
2:4
1.4%
2:5
0.4%
3
3:0
2.3%
3:1
3.6%
3:2
2.9%
3:3
1.6%
3:4
0.6%
3:5
0.2%
4
4:0
0.8%
4:1
1.3%
4:2
1.0%
4:3
0.6%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.2%
5:1
0.4%
5:2
0.3%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:112.3%
1:28.9%
2:17.8%
0:16.8%
0:26.4%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 16.10.2026
Le Mans FC
9th place · 6 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Lorient 2:1
- 13.09.2026 home Lens 2:2
- 05.09.2026 away Nice 1:1
- 30.08.2026 away Rennes 2:3
- 22.08.2026 home Brest 2:2
Toulouse FC
13th place · 5 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Le Havre 3:2
- 12.09.2026 away Lorient 2:2
- 03.09.2026 home Lille 0:1
- 29.08.2026 away Brest 2:2
- 22.08.2026 home Lyon 0:2
This season: Le Mans FC at home vs Toulouse FC away
| Metric | Le Mans FC · at home | Toulouse FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 1–2–0 | 0–2–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.67 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.39 | 1.38 |
| xG against per match | 1.77 | 1.84 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.67 | 3.00 |
| Corners per match | 1.67 | 2.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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