Strasbourg Alsace — AS Monaco: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 57.2% |
| 12 | 74.5% | |
| X2 | 68.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 65.8% / 34.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.9% / 5.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.1% / 14.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 63.5% / 36.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 41.3% / 58.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.2% / 76.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.4% / 88.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 12.09.2026
Strasbourg Alsace
6th place · 6 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 away Troyes 6:2
- 29.08.2026 home Lens 2:1
- 21.08.2026 away Marseille 0:4
- 17.05.2026 home Monaco 5:4
- 13.05.2026 away Brest 2:1
AS Monaco
2nd place · 9 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 04.09.2026 away Paris SG 2:1
- 30.08.2026 home Marseille 2:0
- 23.08.2026 away Le Havre 1:0
- 17.05.2026 away Strasbourg 4:5
- 10.05.2026 home Lille 0:1
This season: Strasbourg Alsace at home vs AS Monaco away
| Metric | Strasbourg Alsace · at home | AS Monaco · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–0 | 2–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| xG for per match | 1.66 | 0.95 |
| xG against per match | 2.88 | 1.46 |
| Shots on target per match | 7.00 | 4.50 |
| Corners per match | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 17.05.2026 Strasbourg Alsace 5:4 AS Monaco
- 31.08.2025 AS Monaco 3:2 Strasbourg Alsace
- 19.04.2025 AS Monaco 0:0 Strasbourg Alsace
- 09.11.2024 Strasbourg Alsace 1:3 AS Monaco
- 10.03.2024 Strasbourg Alsace 0:1 AS Monaco
- 20.08.2023 AS Monaco 3:0 Strasbourg Alsace
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Strasbourg Alsace and AS Monaco meet in Ligue 1 with the available indicators pointing to a competitive match and a slight edge for the visitors. The confidence in that assessment is moderate, so the gap between the teams should not be overstated. A draw remains a realistic possibility, while AS Monaco appear marginally better positioned to avoid defeat.
The match is projected to have an open scoring profile, with both teams likely to find the net. That suggests a contest shaped by attacking intent rather than a purely cautious approach, although the available information does not identify a clear winning margin. Strasbourg Alsace should remain involved throughout, particularly in a game where the balance could shift between the two penalty areas. The most consistent reading is therefore a high-scoring encounter in which AS Monaco hold a slight advantage, with the double-chance outlook favouring the visitors or a draw.
What matters before kick-off
AS Monaco Squad Absences
AS Monaco travel to face Strasbourg without Mamadou Coulibaly and Jordan Teze, who are sidelined through injury.
AS Monaco's Perfect League Start
AS Monaco lead the Ligue 1 table after winning all three of their opening league fixtures under Filipe Luís, including a 2-1 comeback win over Paris Saint-Germain.
Strasbourg Forward Absences
Strasbourg are without attacking options Martial Godo and Joaquín Panichelli due to injury ahead of their clash with AS Monaco.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.