Strasbourg Alsace — AS Monaco: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 57.2% |
| 12 | 74.5% | |
| X2 | 68.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 65.8% / 34.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.9% / 5.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.1% / 14.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 63.5% / 36.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 41.3% / 58.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.2% / 76.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.4% / 88.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 3.10 → now 3.00 |
| W2 | was 2.15 → now 2.25 |
Match preview
Strasbourg Alsace and AS Monaco meet in Ligue 1 with the available indicators pointing to a competitive match and a slight edge for the visitors. The confidence in that assessment is moderate, so the gap between the teams should not be overstated. A draw remains a realistic possibility, while AS Monaco appear marginally better positioned to avoid defeat.
The match is projected to have an open scoring profile, with both teams likely to find the net. That suggests a contest shaped by attacking intent rather than a purely cautious approach, although the available information does not identify a clear winning margin. Strasbourg Alsace should remain involved throughout, particularly in a game where the balance could shift between the two penalty areas. The most consistent reading is therefore a high-scoring encounter in which AS Monaco hold a slight advantage, with the double-chance outlook favouring the visitors or a draw.
What matters before kick-off
AS Monaco Squad Absences
AS Monaco travel to face Strasbourg without Mamadou Coulibaly and Jordan Teze, who are sidelined through injury.
AS Monaco's Perfect League Start
AS Monaco lead the Ligue 1 table after winning all three of their opening league fixtures under Filipe Luís, including a 2-1 comeback win over Paris Saint-Germain.
Strasbourg Forward Absences
Strasbourg are without attacking options Martial Godo and Joaquín Panichelli due to injury ahead of their clash with AS Monaco.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
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Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.