Le Havre AC — Angers SCO: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 66.0% |
| 12 | 72.3% | |
| X2 | 61.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.0% / 42.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.7% / 7.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.2% / 21.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.1% / 46.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.8% / 69.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.2% / 84.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.5% / 93.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| X | was 3.20 → now 3.40 |
Match preview
Le Havre AC and Angers SCO appear evenly matched ahead of their Ligue 1 meeting. The available assessment gives this reading moderate confidence, with neither side holding a clearly established advantage. That points toward a contest in which small differences in execution, especially in midfield and around the penalty areas, could have a significant influence on the outcome.
The match is expected to sit in a medium-scoring range, although the possibility of both teams finding the net remains finely balanced. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 0:1 and 0:0, which underline the uncertainty around the game and the potential for a close, controlled encounter. Angers SCO have a slight edge in the broader result signal, but a draw remains a strong possibility. Le Havre AC will need to limit defensive errors and make their possession count, while Angers SCO may look to stay compact and take advantage of any openings in transition.
What matters before kick-off
Early season league form
Le Havre picked up just one point from their opening three Ligue 1 fixtures, following a 2-1 loss to Brest in their last outing. Angers earned three points across their first three league games, courtesy of a win over Auxerre alongside two defeats.
Squad availability and discipline
Le Havre are without Junior Mwanga due to suspension, while Angers have midfielder Haris Belkebla sidelined with an injury.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.