FC Lorient — Toulouse FC: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 68.6% |
| 12 | 71.6% | |
| X2 | 59.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.1% / 40.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.4% / 7.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 79.4% / 20.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 54.1% / 45.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.8% / 68.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.0% / 84.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.9% / 93.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.60 → now 2.38 |
| W2 | was 2.80 → now 3.00 |
Match preview
FC Lorient and Toulouse FC appear evenly matched ahead of their Ligue 1 meeting. The available assessment gives neither side a clear advantage, with the hosts holding only a slight positional edge through the 1X signal. That points toward a contest where defensive organisation and control of key phases may be as important as attacking initiative. With moderate confidence in the overall outlook, the match is difficult to separate on paper.
The expected scoring profile is medium-scoring, suggesting a game with a balanced level of attacking threat rather than an extreme outcome at either end of the pitch. Whether both teams find the net is also finely balanced, so the match could develop through cautious spells before opening up. FC Lorient will have home advantage, while Toulouse FC will look to remain competitive and take opportunities when they arise. A draw is a credible scenario, but the available indications also leave room for either team to edge a close encounter.
What matters before kick-off
Team availability updates
Midfielder Bandiougou Fadiga is sidelined for FC Lorient due to injury. Toulouse FC have goalkeeper Guillaume Restes and midfielder Abu Francis out injured.
Recent Ligue 1 results
FC Lorient enter the match following a 1-0 away victory against Lens thanks to a goal by Mamadou Koné. Toulouse FC suffered a 1-0 home loss to Lille in their previous league fixture.
Head-to-head record
Toulouse FC are unbeaten in their last nine Ligue 1 encounters against FC Lorient, recording four wins and five draws.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.