FC Lorient — Toulouse FC: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 69.8% |
| 12 | 71.7% | |
| X2 | 58.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.0% / 41.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.5% / 7.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 79.5% / 20.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 54.2% / 45.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.9% / 68.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.0% / 84.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.9% / 93.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 12.09.2026
FC Lorient
8th place · 4 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 away Lens 1:0
- 29.08.2026 home Troyes 1:2
- 22.08.2026 away Nice 0:0
- 17.05.2026 home Le Havre 0:2
- 10.05.2026 away Metz 4:0
Toulouse FC
17th place · 1 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 03.09.2026 home Lille 0:1
- 29.08.2026 away Brest 2:2
- 22.08.2026 home Lyon 0:2
- 17.05.2026 away Nantes 0:0
- 10.05.2026 home Lyon 2:1
This season: FC Lorient at home vs Toulouse FC away
| Metric | FC Lorient · at home | Toulouse FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 0–0–1 | 0–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.07 | 1.12 |
| xG against per match | 1.57 | 2.73 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| Corners per match | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 21.03.2026 Toulouse FC 1:0 FC Lorient
- 09.11.2025 FC Lorient 1:1 Toulouse FC
- 28.04.2024 FC Lorient 1:2 Toulouse FC
- 03.12.2023 Toulouse FC 1:1 FC Lorient
- 23.04.2023 FC Lorient 0:1 Toulouse FC
- 21.08.2022 Toulouse FC 2:2 FC Lorient
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
FC Lorient and Toulouse FC appear evenly matched ahead of their Ligue 1 meeting on 12 September 2026. The available assessment points to a moderate level of confidence, with neither side holding a clear overall advantage. The signal leans toward a result that protects the home team from defeat, but the balance between the teams remains central to the outlook.
The match is projected to be medium-scoring, and both teams are considered likely to score. That profile suggests an open contest in which each side should have opportunities, while the final outcome may depend on which team manages its attacking moments more efficiently. A draw is a credible scenario, although narrow wins for either FC Lorient or Toulouse FC also fit the assessment. The most representative scorelines are 1:1, 2:1, and 1:2.
What matters before kick-off
Team availability updates
Midfielder Bandiougou Fadiga is sidelined for FC Lorient due to injury. Toulouse FC have goalkeeper Guillaume Restes and midfielder Abu Francis out injured.
Recent Ligue 1 results
FC Lorient enter the match following a 1-0 away victory against Lens thanks to a goal by Mamadou Koné. Toulouse FC suffered a 1-0 home loss to Lille in their previous league fixture.
Head-to-head record
Toulouse FC are unbeaten in their last nine Ligue 1 encounters against FC Lorient, recording four wins and five draws.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.