Lille OSC — ESTAC Troyes: Win probabilities, 13.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 87.5% |
| 12 | 80.0% | |
| X2 | 32.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.8% / 48.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.6% / 5.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.7% / 18.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 59.0% / 41.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 36.7% / 63.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 19.5% / 80.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.0% / 91.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Lille OSC have the clearer edge ahead of their Ligue 1 meeting with ESTAC Troyes. The assessment points to a home advantage with moderate confidence, suggesting that Lille OSC should control more of the match without the outcome being treated as certain. The expected profile is medium-scoring, with the home side favoured to create the more convincing opportunities.
The possibility of both teams scoring remains finely balanced, so the match does not strongly point toward either a clean sheet or goals at both ends. The most plausible scorelines are 2:0, 2:1, and 1:0, all of which reflect Lille OSC’s advantage while allowing for different levels of resistance from ESTAC Troyes. Overall, the central expectation is a composed home performance and a competitive contest rather than an open, high-scoring game.
What matters before kick-off
Busy schedule for Lille
Lille OSC enter the match against ESTAC Troyes following their UEFA Champions League league phase opener against Real Betis on September 8, 2026.
Troyes suffered first defeat of the season
ESTAC Troyes lost 2-6 at home to Strasbourg in round 3 of Ligue 1, suffering their first league defeat of the campaign prior to visiting Lille OSC.
Troyes manager's past with Lille
ESTAC Troyes head coach Stéphane Dumont played for Lille OSC from 2003 to 2011, winning Ligue 1 and the Coupe de France, and previously worked on the LOSC coaching staff.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.