Lille OSC — ESTAC Troyes: Win probabilities, 13.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 87.6% |
| 12 | 81.1% | |
| X2 | 31.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.3% / 46.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.4% / 4.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.1% / 16.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.7% / 38.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 39.4% / 60.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.7% / 78.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.4% / 89.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 13.09.2026
Lille OSC
5th place · 7 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 03.09.2026 away Toulouse 1:0
- 28.08.2026 home Paris SG 2:2
- 23.08.2026 away Angers 2:0
- 17.05.2026 home Auxerre 0:2
- 10.05.2026 away Monaco 1:0
ESTAC Troyes
10th place · 4 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 home Strasbourg 2:6
- 29.08.2026 away Lorient 2:1
- 22.08.2026 home Paris FC 0:0
- 09.05.2026 away Grenoble 0:1
- 02.05.2026 home Laval 4:0
This season: Lille OSC at home vs ESTAC Troyes away
| Metric | Lille OSC · at home | ESTAC Troyes · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–0 | 1–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.27 | 1.57 |
| xG against per match | 1.44 | 1.07 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| Corners per match | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 4 meetings
- 03.06.2023 ESTAC Troyes 1:1 Lille OSC
- 15.01.2023 Lille OSC 5:1 ESTAC Troyes
- 01.05.2022 ESTAC Troyes 3:0 Lille OSC
- 04.12.2021 Lille OSC 2:1 ESTAC Troyes
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Lille OSC are the clearly stronger side in this Ligue 1 matchup with ESTAC Troyes, although the moderate confidence level suggests a measured rather than emphatic assessment. The outlook points towards a medium-scoring game, with Lille OSC more likely to control the overall balance and create the stronger platform at home.
The possibility of both teams scoring is finely balanced, so the match could develop around Lille OSC’s ability to turn territorial control into clear chances. The most plausible scorelines indicate a narrow home victory, with results such as 2:0, 1:0 or 2:1 reflecting the expectation of an advantage for Lille OSC without suggesting a one-sided contest.
What matters before kick-off
Midweek European Result for Lille
Lille enter this Ligue 1 fixture following a 3-2 home loss to Real Betis in European competition during midweek.
Lille's Recent Home Record Against Troyes
Lille have won each of their last three home matches against ESTAC Troyes dating back to 2021.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.