Stade Brest 29 — Paris Saint-Germain: Win probabilities, 13.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 21.6% |
| 12 | 85.8% | |
| X2 | 92.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.3% / 46.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.9% / 3.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.7% / 11.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 71.0% / 29.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 50.0% / 50.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 30.7% / 69.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 16.6% / 83.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| X | was 5.75 → now 6.00 |
Match preview
Stade Brest 29 face Paris Saint-Germain in Ligue 1, with the visitors holding a clear edge in the pre-match assessment. The available indicators point towards Paris Saint-Germain being the stronger side overall, while the high-scoring profile suggests an open contest with several attacking moments. That said, the expectation of both teams scoring remains finely balanced rather than clearly favouring either outcome.
The most plausible scorelines are 0:2, 0:3 and 1:2, which consistently reflect an advantage for Paris Saint-Germain without ruling out a competitive contribution from Stade Brest 29. The key question is whether Stade Brest 29 can turn their attacking opportunities into goals against a side expected to control more of the match. Overall, the outlook is for Paris Saint-Germain to impose their quality, with the game potentially producing a lively scoreline rather than a low-event encounter.
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Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.