Stade Brest 29 — Paris Saint-Germain: Win probabilities, 13.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 19.6% |
| 12 | 87.0% | |
| X2 | 93.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.6% / 46.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.3% / 2.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.9% / 10.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 73.3% / 26.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 52.9% / 47.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 33.4% / 66.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 18.6% / 81.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 13.09.2026
Stade Brest 29
7th place · 5 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 away Le Havre 2:1
- 29.08.2026 home Toulouse 2:2
- 22.08.2026 away Le Mans 2:2
- 17.05.2026 home Angers 1:1
- 13.05.2026 home Strasbourg 1:2
Paris Saint-Germain
15th place · 2 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 04.09.2026 home Monaco 1:2
- 28.08.2026 away Lille 2:2
- 23.08.2026 away Rennes 2:2
- 17.05.2026 away Paris FC 1:2
- 13.05.2026 away Lens 2:0
This season: Stade Brest 29 at home vs Paris Saint-Germain away
| Metric | Stade Brest 29 · at home | Paris Saint-Germain · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–0 | 0–2–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 2.73 | 1.81 |
| xG against per match | 1.12 | 1.07 |
| Shots on target per match | 7.00 | 4.50 |
| Corners per match | 7.00 | 7.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 10.05.2026 Paris Saint-Germain 1:0 Stade Brest 29
- 25.10.2025 Stade Brest 29 0:3 Paris Saint-Germain
- 01.02.2025 Stade Brest 29 2:5 Paris Saint-Germain
- 14.09.2024 Paris Saint-Germain 3:1 Stade Brest 29
- 28.01.2024 Paris Saint-Germain 2:2 Stade Brest 29
- 29.10.2023 Stade Brest 29 2:3 Paris Saint-Germain
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Stade Brest 29 host Paris Saint-Germain in a Ligue 1 meeting where the visitors hold a clear advantage. The available assessment points strongly toward Paris Saint-Germain, while the expected character of the match is high-scoring rather than cautious. That gives the visitors the stronger attacking outlook, although Stade Brest 29 should still have opportunities to contribute in an open contest.
The most plausible scorelines are 0:2, 0:3 and 1:2, reflecting a match in which Paris Saint-Germain are expected to control the decisive phases. The possibility of both teams scoring remains finely balanced, so Stade Brest 29 cannot be dismissed entirely in the attacking sense. Even so, the overall picture is of Paris Saint-Germain being clearly stronger, with their quality likely to shape the result if they impose their rhythm.
What matters before kick-off
PSG's unbeaten streak against Brest
Paris Saint-Germain are unbeaten in their last 34 matches in all competitions against Stade Brestois 29 (26 wins, 8 draws). This is the longest historical unbeaten run across all competitions by one current Ligue 1 club against another.
PSG's convincing European win before Brest trip
Prior to their Ligue 1 away clash against Brest, Paris Saint-Germain secured a 6-1 victory over Slovan Bratislava in the Champions League.
Nuno Mendes available for PSG after suspension
PSG defender Nuno Mendes is back available for Ligue 1 action after serving a three-match domestic suspension.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.