Paris FC — Olympique Lyon: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 63.1% |
| 12 | 75.5% | |
| X2 | 61.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 65.9% / 34.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.6% / 4.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.8% / 15.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 63.9% / 36.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 41.8% / 58.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.6% / 76.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.6% / 88.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 12.09.2026
Paris FC
4th place · 7 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 away Marseille 3:2
- 30.08.2026 home Nice 3:0
- 22.08.2026 away Troyes 0:0
- 17.05.2026 home Paris SG 2:1
- 10.05.2026 away Rennes 1:2
Olympique Lyon
3rd place · 7 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 04.09.2026 home Auxerre 3:1
- 29.08.2026 home Le Havre 1:1
- 22.08.2026 away Toulouse 2:0
- 17.05.2026 home Lens 0:4
- 10.05.2026 away Toulouse 1:2
This season: Paris FC at home vs Olympique Lyon away
| Metric | Paris FC · at home | Olympique Lyon · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–0 | 1–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| xG for per match | 2.88 | 0.70 |
| xG against per match | 0.65 | 2.76 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| Corners per match | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
- 08.03.2026 Olympique Lyon 1:1 Paris FC
- 29.10.2025 Paris FC 3:3 Olympique Lyon
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Paris FC and Olympique Lyon appear evenly matched ahead of their Ligue 1 meeting on 12 September 2026. The available assessment gives neither side a decisive advantage, with a moderate level of confidence in that reading. This points to a competitive fixture in which the balance between the teams may remain difficult to separate for long periods.
The scoring outlook is more clearly defined. The match is expected to be high-scoring, while both Paris FC and Olympique Lyon are considered likely to find the net. That makes the possibility of goals at both ends the main analytical signal, rather than a strong preference for either team to win. The projected scorelines include 1:1, 2:1 and 1:2, reflecting the overall uncertainty around the result while maintaining the expectation of an open contest.
What matters before kick-off
Strong starts in Ligue 1
Heading into this fixture, both Paris FC and Lyon have earned 7 points from their opening three Ligue 1 matches. In their previous league outings, Paris FC defeated Marseille 3-2, while Lyon beat Auxerre 3-1.
Injury absentees for Paris FC
Ahead of the clash against Lyon, Paris FC are missing defenders Otávio, Nhoa Sangui, and Emmanuel Mbemba due to injuries.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.