Paris FC — Olympique Lyon: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 63.2% |
| 12 | 75.3% | |
| X2 | 61.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 66.1% / 33.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.4% / 4.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.0% / 15.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.0% / 36.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 41.9% / 58.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.7% / 76.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.7% / 88.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.55 → now 2.45 |
Match preview
Paris FC and Olympique Lyon appear evenly matched heading into this Ligue 1 meeting. The available assessment gives the hosts no clear advantage over the visitors, with a moderate level of confidence suggesting that the contest could remain finely balanced throughout.
A medium-scoring game is expected, and both teams are likely to find the net. The most plausible scorelines point toward a close match, with 1:1 standing alongside narrow victories for either Paris FC or Olympique Lyon. Overall, the outlook favours a cautious interpretation: Paris FC may have enough at home to avoid defeat, but Olympique Lyon have a comparable chance of taking control in key moments.
What matters before kick-off
Strong starts in Ligue 1
Heading into this fixture, both Paris FC and Lyon have earned 7 points from their opening three Ligue 1 matches. In their previous league outings, Paris FC defeated Marseille 3-2, while Lyon beat Auxerre 3-1.
Injury absentees for Paris FC
Ahead of the clash against Lyon, Paris FC are missing defenders Otávio, Nhoa Sangui, and Emmanuel Mbemba due to injuries.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.