AJ Auxerre — OGC Nice: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 60.2% |
| 12 | 72.4% | |
| X2 | 67.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.8% / 42.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.7% / 7.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.1% / 21.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.1% / 46.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.8% / 69.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.2% / 84.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.5% / 93.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 12.09.2026
AJ Auxerre
18th place · 0 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 04.09.2026 away Lyon 1:3
- 29.08.2026 home Angers 1:3
- 22.08.2026 away Lens 2:5
- 17.05.2026 away Lille 2:0
- 10.05.2026 home Nice 2:1
OGC Nice
15th place · 2 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 home Le Mans 1:1
- 30.08.2026 away Paris FC 0:3
- 22.08.2026 home Lorient 0:0
- 17.05.2026 home Metz 0:0
- 10.05.2026 away Auxerre 1:2
This season: AJ Auxerre at home vs OGC Nice away
| Metric | AJ Auxerre · at home | OGC Nice · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 0–0–1 | 0–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.29 | 0.65 |
| xG against per match | 1.74 | 2.88 |
| Shots on target per match | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| Corners per match | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 10.05.2026 AJ Auxerre 2:1 OGC Nice
- 23.08.2025 OGC Nice 3:1 AJ Auxerre
- 14.03.2025 OGC Nice 1:1 AJ Auxerre
- 18.08.2024 AJ Auxerre 2:1 OGC Nice
- 03.03.2023 OGC Nice 1:1 AJ Auxerre
- 16.10.2022 AJ Auxerre 1:1 OGC Nice
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
AJ Auxerre and OGC Nice meet in Ligue 1 on 12 September 2026 in a contest that appears evenly matched. The available assessment gives neither side a clear overall advantage, with moderate confidence in that reading. This points to a game where the balance could shift during the match rather than one dominated consistently by either team.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, while the possibility of both teams finding the net remains finely balanced. The most plausible scorelines include 1:1, 1:2 and 2:1, reflecting a competitive encounter with several credible outcomes. The market signal gives OGC Nice some protection against defeat, but this is not strong enough to remove the possibility of a draw or an AJ Auxerre victory. Overall, the fixture is best viewed as a close match in which small details may determine the result.
What matters before kick-off
AJ Auxerre lost opening three league matches
AJ Auxerre entered matchday four of the Ligue 1 campaign without a point after losing their first three league games, most recently suffering a 3-1 defeat away to Lyon.
OGC Nice search for first win of Ligue 1 season
OGC Nice remained winless across their first three Ligue 1 matches (two draws, one defeat), entering the fixture following a 1-1 home draw against Le Mans.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.