AJ Auxerre — OGC Nice: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 61.2% |
| 12 | 71.6% | |
| X2 | 67.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.8% / 42.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.3% / 7.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.0% / 22.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 52.6% / 47.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.3% / 69.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.9% / 85.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.3% / 93.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.63 → now 2.88 |
| W2 | was 2.75 → now 2.45 |
Match preview
AJ Auxerre and OGC Nice look evenly matched ahead of their Ligue 1 meeting. The available assessment points to a moderate-confidence contest rather than a fixture with a clear favourite, so the balance between home advantage and OGC Nice’s prospects makes the result difficult to separate. Neither side holds a decisive analytical edge.
The match is expected to produce a medium-scoring game, with both teams scoring remaining a genuine possibility rather than a strong expectation. The most plausible scorelines reflect that uncertainty: 1:1, 1:2 and 2:1 all fit the wider picture. That range suggests a close contest in which small details may determine whether AJ Auxerre take the initiative, OGC Nice find a narrow advantage, or the teams share the points.
What matters before kick-off
AJ Auxerre lost opening three league matches
AJ Auxerre entered matchday four of the Ligue 1 campaign without a point after losing their first three league games, most recently suffering a 3-1 defeat away to Lyon.
OGC Nice search for first win of Ligue 1 season
OGC Nice remained winless across their first three Ligue 1 matches (two draws, one defeat), entering the fixture following a 1-1 home draw against Le Mans.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.