Stade Rennais FC — Olympique Marseille: Win probabilities, 11.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 70.9% |
| 12 | 75.8% | |
| X2 | 53.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 69.4% / 30.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.8% / 4.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.2% / 11.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 68.8% / 31.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 47.3% / 52.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 28.3% / 71.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.9% / 85.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 1.95 → now 2.05 |
| X | was 4.00 → now 3.80 |
| W2 | was 3.40 → now 3.20 |
Match preview
Stade Rennais FC have a slight edge over Olympique Marseille, although the moderate confidence indicates a competitive Ligue 1 fixture rather than a one-sided contest. The home side’s advantage is reflected in the broader 1X outlook, which points toward Stade Rennais FC avoiding defeat while leaving room for a draw. Olympique Marseille remain sufficiently strong to make the match tactically demanding, particularly if they can impose their attacking rhythm away from home.
The available indicators point to an open, high-scoring game in which both teams are likely to find the net. That should encourage an active approach from both sides, with defensive control potentially tested throughout the match. Stade Rennais FC may have the slightly more favorable platform because of home advantage, but Olympique Marseille’s attacking threat keeps the outcome balanced. A narrow home win or a draw fits the overall profile, while the match could remain undecided deep into the second half.
What matters before kick-off
Team news ahead of the match
Marseille will be without midfielders Geoffrey Kondogbia and Tochukwu Nnadi due to injuries.
Early season form
Rennes enter the fixture unbeaten through their first three Ligue 1 matches, while Marseille have suffered back-to-back league defeats after an opening-weekend win.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.