Stade Rennais FC — Olympique Marseille: Win probabilities, 11.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 70.9% |
| 12 | 75.8% | |
| X2 | 53.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 69.4% / 30.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.8% / 4.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.2% / 11.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 68.8% / 31.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 47.3% / 52.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 28.3% / 71.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.9% / 85.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 11.09.2026
Stade Rennais FC
5th place · 7 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 away Angers 2:1
- 30.08.2026 home Le Mans 3:2
- 23.08.2026 home Paris SG 2:2
- 17.05.2026 away Marseille 1:3
- 10.05.2026 home Paris FC 2:1
Olympique Marseille
10th place · 3 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 home Paris FC 2:3
- 30.08.2026 away Monaco 0:2
- 21.08.2026 home Strasbourg 4:0
- 17.05.2026 home Rennes 3:1
- 10.05.2026 away Le Havre 1:0
This season: Stade Rennais FC at home vs Olympique Marseille away
| Metric | Stade Rennais FC · at home | Olympique Marseille · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 1–1–0 | 0–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.50 | 0.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.78 | 1.22 |
| xG against per match | 2.58 | 1.49 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.50 | 2.00 |
| Corners per match | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 17.05.2026 Olympique Marseille 3:1 Stade Rennais FC
- 15.08.2025 Stade Rennais FC 1:0 Olympique Marseille
- 17.05.2025 Olympique Marseille 4:2 Stade Rennais FC
- 11.01.2025 Stade Rennais FC 1:2 Olympique Marseille
- 17.03.2024 Stade Rennais FC 2:0 Olympique Marseille
- 03.12.2023 Olympique Marseille 2:0 Stade Rennais FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Stade Rennais FC have a slight edge over Olympique Marseille, although the moderate confidence indicates a competitive Ligue 1 fixture rather than a one-sided contest. The home side’s advantage is reflected in the broader 1X outlook, which points toward Stade Rennais FC avoiding defeat while leaving room for a draw. Olympique Marseille remain sufficiently strong to make the match tactically demanding, particularly if they can impose their attacking rhythm away from home.
The available indicators point to an open, high-scoring game in which both teams are likely to find the net. That should encourage an active approach from both sides, with defensive control potentially tested throughout the match. Stade Rennais FC may have the slightly more favorable platform because of home advantage, but Olympique Marseille’s attacking threat keeps the outcome balanced. A narrow home win or a draw fits the overall profile, while the match could remain undecided deep into the second half.
What matters before kick-off
Team news ahead of the match
Marseille will be without midfielders Geoffrey Kondogbia and Tochukwu Nnadi due to injuries.
Early season form
Rennes enter the fixture unbeaten through their first three Ligue 1 matches, while Marseille have suffered back-to-back league defeats after an opening-weekend win.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.