Stoke City — Middlesbrough FC: Win probabilities, 13.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
25.2%
Home win
Stoke City
X
26.0%
Draw
W2
48.8%
Away win
Middlesbrough FC
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
X274.8%
Both teams to score
Yes61.4%
Totals 2.5
Over59.2%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 51.2% |
| 12 | 74.0% | |
| X2 | 74.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 61.4% / 38.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.9% / 6.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.5% / 17.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 59.2% / 40.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 36.8% / 63.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 19.6% / 80.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.1% / 90.9% |
Goal distribution model
Stoke City × Middlesbrough FC
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
6.1%
0:1
6.9%
0:2
7.6%
0:3
4.6%
0:4
2.1%
0:5
0.7%
1
1:0
4.4%
1:1
12.1%
1:2
9.6%
1:3
5.8%
1:4
2.6%
1:5
0.9%
2
2:0
3.7%
2:1
6.7%
2:2
6.0%
2:3
3.6%
2:4
1.6%
2:5
0.6%
3
3:0
1.6%
3:1
2.8%
3:2
2.5%
3:3
1.5%
3:4
0.7%
3:5
0.2%
4
4:0
0.5%
4:1
0.9%
4:2
0.8%
4:3
0.5%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.1%
5:1
0.2%
5:2
0.2%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:112.1%
1:29.6%
0:27.6%
0:16.9%
2:16.7%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 13.10.2026
Stoke City
8th place · 13 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Sheffield United 2:1
- 12.09.2026 away Watford 2:1
- 08.09.2026 away Cardiff 1:1
- 05.09.2026 home Charlton 4:0
- 01.09.2026 home Norwich 1:0
Middlesbrough FC
3rd place · 15 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Birmingham 2:2
- 15.09.2026 home Millwall 2:2
- 12.09.2026 home Norwich 4:3
- 05.09.2026 away QPR 1:0
- 02.09.2026 away Burnley 1:1
This season: Stoke City at home vs Middlesbrough FC away
| Metric | Stoke City · at home | Middlesbrough FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 3–0–1 | 1–2–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 1.25 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.75 | 1.25 |
| xG for per match | 0.88 | 1.83 |
| xG against per match | 0.73 | 0.95 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.25 | 3.75 |
| Corners per match | 5.00 | 4.25 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 75% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Stoke City wins2
Draws1
Middlesbrough FC wins3
Goals per match2.17
Both teams scored2/6
Over 2.5 goals2/6
- 21.01.2026 Stoke City 1:2 Middlesbrough FC
- 30.09.2025 Middlesbrough FC 0:0 Stoke City
- 25.02.2025 Stoke City 1:3 Middlesbrough FC
- 28.09.2024 Middlesbrough FC 2:0 Stoke City
- 02.03.2024 Stoke City 2:0 Middlesbrough FC
- 28.10.2023 Middlesbrough FC 0:2 Stoke City
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 3.75 → now 3.60 |
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