Millwall FC — Swansea City: Win probabilities, 13.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
39.4%
Home win
Millwall FC
X
26.4%
Draw
W2
34.1%
Away win
Swansea City
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1273.6%
Both teams to score
Yes57.5%
Totals 2.5
Over53.3%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 65.9% |
| 12 | 73.6% | |
| X2 | 60.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.5% / 42.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.4% / 6.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.7% / 22.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.3% / 46.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.0% / 69.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.4% / 84.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.6% / 93.4% |
Goal distribution model
Millwall FC × Swansea City
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
6.6%
0:1
7.5%
0:2
5.5%
0:3
2.4%
0:4
0.8%
0:5
0.2%
1
1:0
8.2%
1:1
12.5%
1:2
8.0%
1:3
3.6%
1:4
1.2%
1:5
0.3%
2
2:0
6.5%
2:1
8.7%
2:2
5.8%
2:3
2.6%
2:4
0.9%
2:5
0.2%
3
3:0
3.1%
3:1
4.2%
3:2
2.8%
3:3
1.3%
3:4
0.4%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
1.2%
4:1
1.5%
4:2
1.0%
4:3
0.5%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.3%
5:1
0.5%
5:2
0.3%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:112.5%
2:18.7%
1:08.2%
1:28.0%
0:17.5%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 13.10.2026
Millwall FC
12th place · 11 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home West Ham 2:2
- 15.09.2026 away Middlesbrough 2:2
- 12.09.2026 away Blackburn 1:3
- 05.09.2026 home Bolton 4:0
- 02.09.2026 home Wrexham 0:3
Swansea City
1st place · 17 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Lincoln 2:1
- 12.09.2026 home Burnley 3:1
- 08.09.2026 away Southampton 1:3
- 05.09.2026 home Wrexham 0:0
- 01.09.2026 home Watford 2:0
This season: Millwall FC at home vs Swansea City away
| Metric | Millwall FC · at home | Swansea City · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 2–1–1 | 3–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.25 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| xG for per match | 2.06 | 1.44 |
| xG against per match | 1.23 | 1.16 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.75 | 5.25 |
| Corners per match | 3.75 | 3.75 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 75% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Millwall FC wins4
Draws1
Swansea City wins1
Goals per match1.83
Both teams scored2/6
Over 2.5 goals2/6
- 04.01.2026 Millwall FC 2:1 Swansea City
- 27.09.2025 Swansea City 1:1 Millwall FC
- 26.04.2025 Millwall FC 1:0 Swansea City
- 26.10.2024 Swansea City 0:1 Millwall FC
- 04.05.2024 Swansea City 0:1 Millwall FC
- 30.09.2023 Millwall FC 0:3 Swansea City
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.50 → now 2.40 |
| W2 | was 2.63 → now 2.75 |
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