Birmingham City — Preston North End: Win probabilities, 13.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
62.7%
Home win
Birmingham City
X
21.7%
Draw
W2
15.5%
Away win
Preston North End
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X84.5%
Both teams to score
Yes53.3%
Totals 2.5
Over57.2%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 84.5% |
| 12 | 78.3% | |
| X2 | 37.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.3% / 46.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.3% / 5.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.4% / 19.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 57.2% / 42.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 34.8% / 65.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.1% / 81.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.2% / 91.8% |
Goal distribution model
Birmingham City × Preston North End
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
5.7%
0:1
4.1%
0:2
2.2%
0:3
0.7%
0:4
0.2%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
9.8%
1:1
10.3%
1:2
4.5%
1:3
1.4%
1:4
0.3%
1:5
0.1%
2
2:0
10.7%
2:1
9.9%
2:2
4.6%
2:3
1.4%
2:4
0.3%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
7.3%
3:1
6.8%
3:2
3.1%
3:3
1.0%
3:4
0.2%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
3.7%
4:1
3.5%
4:2
1.6%
4:3
0.5%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
1.5%
5:1
1.4%
5:2
0.7%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
2:010.7%
1:110.3%
2:19.9%
1:09.8%
3:07.3%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 13.10.2026
Birmingham City
11th place · 11 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Middlesbrough 2:2
- 12.09.2026 away Derby 2:1
- 09.09.2026 away Norwich 1:2
- 06.09.2026 home Wolves 2:2
- 01.09.2026 home Southampton 1:1
Preston North End
23rd place · 4 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away QPR 2:2
- 12.09.2026 home Lincoln 0:1
- 08.09.2026 away Watford 1:2
- 05.09.2026 home Blackburn 2:1
- 01.09.2026 home Bristol City 1:3
This season: Birmingham City at home vs Preston North End away
| Metric | Birmingham City · at home | Preston North End · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 0–4–0 | 0–1–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.75 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.75 | 1.75 |
| xG for per match | 1.54 | 1.45 |
| xG against per match | 1.76 | 1.39 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.00 | 3.25 |
| Corners per match | 5.75 | 3.25 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 75% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Birmingham City wins4
Draws0
Preston North End wins2
Goals per match2.00
Both teams scored3/6
Over 2.5 goals3/6
- 22.04.2026 Birmingham City 2:1 Preston North End
- 21.10.2025 Preston North End 0:1 Birmingham City
- 01.04.2024 Birmingham City 1:0 Preston North End
- 19.09.2023 Preston North End 2:1 Birmingham City
- 21.01.2023 Birmingham City 1:2 Preston North End
- 03.09.2022 Preston North End 0:1 Birmingham City
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 1.62 → now 1.55 |
| X | was 3.75 → now 4.20 |
| W2 | was 5.50 → now 5.75 |
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