Burnley FC — Charlton Athletic: Win probabilities, 13.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
60.3%
Home win
Burnley FC
X
23.8%
Draw
W2
16.0%
Away win
Charlton Athletic
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X84.0%
Both teams to score
Yes52.4%
Totals 2.5
Over54.3%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 84.0% |
| 12 | 76.2% | |
| X2 | 39.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.4% / 47.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.1% / 6.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.9% / 21.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 54.3% / 45.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 32.0% / 68.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.1% / 83.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.0% / 93.0% |
Goal distribution model
Burnley FC × Charlton Athletic
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
6.9%
0:1
4.1%
0:2
2.4%
0:3
0.7%
0:4
0.2%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
10.0%
1:1
11.3%
1:2
4.7%
1:3
1.4%
1:4
0.3%
1:5
0.1%
2
2:0
10.9%
2:1
9.9%
2:2
4.5%
2:3
1.4%
2:4
0.3%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
7.0%
3:1
6.4%
3:2
2.9%
3:3
0.9%
3:4
0.2%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
3.4%
4:1
3.1%
4:2
1.4%
4:3
0.4%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
1.3%
5:1
1.2%
5:2
0.6%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:111.3%
2:010.9%
1:010.1%
2:19.9%
3:07.0%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 13.10.2026
Burnley FC
24th place · 4 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Derby 1:1
- 12.09.2026 away Swansea 1:3
- 08.09.2026 away Wrexham 1:1
- 05.09.2026 home Bristol City 1:2
- 02.09.2026 home Middlesbrough 1:1
Charlton Athletic
10th place · 12 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Cardiff 1:3
- 12.09.2026 home Portsmouth 0:0
- 09.09.2026 home QPR 0:0
- 05.09.2026 away Stoke 0:4
- 02.09.2026 away West Brom 1:1
This season: Burnley FC at home vs Charlton Athletic away
| Metric | Burnley FC · at home | Charlton Athletic · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 0–3–1 | 1–1–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.25 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.50 | 2.25 |
| xG for per match | 0.92 | 0.72 |
| xG against per match | 1.34 | 2.04 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.25 | 3.00 |
| Corners per match | 4.75 | 2.75 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 75% |
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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