Bristol City — Blackburn Rovers: Win probabilities, 13.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
44.7%
Home win
Bristol City
X
29.4%
Draw
W2
26.0%
Away win
Blackburn Rovers
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X74.0%
Both teams to score
Yes56.2%
Totals 2.5
Over51.0%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 74.0% |
| 12 | 70.6% | |
| X2 | 55.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.2% / 43.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.2% / 8.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.6% / 22.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 51.0% / 49.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.9% / 71.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.9% / 86.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.8% / 94.2% |
Goal distribution model
Bristol City × Blackburn Rovers
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
8.8%
0:1
5.5%
0:2
4.4%
0:3
1.7%
0:4
0.5%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
8.2%
1:1
14.1%
1:2
6.9%
1:3
2.6%
1:4
0.8%
1:5
0.2%
2
2:0
8.1%
2:1
9.3%
2:2
5.4%
2:3
2.1%
2:4
0.6%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
4.2%
3:1
4.9%
3:2
2.8%
3:3
1.1%
3:4
0.3%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
1.6%
4:1
1.9%
4:2
1.1%
4:3
0.4%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.5%
5:1
0.6%
5:2
0.3%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:114.1%
2:19.3%
0:08.8%
1:08.2%
2:08.1%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 13.10.2026
Bristol City
9th place · 13 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.09.2026 home Watford 1:0
- 15.09.2026 home Lincoln 0:1
- 12.09.2026 away Southampton 1:4
- 05.09.2026 away Burnley 2:1
- 01.09.2026 away Preston 3:1
Blackburn Rovers
16th place · 9 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Portsmouth 2:2
- 12.09.2026 home Millwall 3:1
- 08.09.2026 home Sheffield United 1:2
- 05.09.2026 away Preston 1:2
- 01.09.2026 away Lincoln 0:0
This season: Bristol City at home vs Blackburn Rovers away
| Metric | Bristol City · at home | Blackburn Rovers · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 2–0–2 | 0–3–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.75 | 1.25 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| xG for per match | 1.06 | 0.69 |
| xG against per match | 1.46 | 1.81 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.50 | 4.25 |
| Corners per match | 6.00 | 7.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 75% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Bristol City wins3
Draws0
Blackburn Rovers wins3
Goals per match3.00
Both teams scored3/6
Over 2.5 goals5/6
- 24.02.2026 Blackburn Rovers 1:2 Bristol City
- 04.11.2025 Bristol City 0:1 Blackburn Rovers
- 25.01.2025 Bristol City 2:1 Blackburn Rovers
- 14.09.2024 Blackburn Rovers 3:0 Bristol City
- 10.04.2024 Bristol City 5:0 Blackburn Rovers
- 12.12.2023 Blackburn Rovers 2:1 Bristol City
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 1.95 → now 2.15 |
| X | was 3.40 → now 3.20 |
| W2 | was 3.90 → now 3.60 |
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