Cardiff City — Watford FC: Win probabilities, 13.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
58.1%
Home win
Cardiff City
X
22.9%
Draw
W2
19.0%
Away win
Watford FC
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X81.0%
Both teams to score
Yes63.9%
Totals 2.5
Over66.2%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 81.0% |
| 12 | 77.1% | |
| X2 | 41.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.9% / 36.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.3% / 4.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.8% / 13.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 66.2% / 33.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 44.4% / 55.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 25.8% / 74.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.1% / 86.9% |
Goal distribution model
Cardiff City × Watford FC
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
4.7%
0:1
2.6%
0:2
2.5%
0:3
1.0%
0:4
0.3%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
5.9%
1:1
10.2%
1:2
5.4%
1:3
2.2%
1:4
0.7%
1:5
0.2%
2
2:0
7.9%
2:1
9.7%
2:2
5.9%
2:3
2.4%
2:4
0.7%
2:5
0.2%
3
3:0
5.8%
3:1
7.1%
3:2
4.3%
3:3
1.7%
3:4
0.5%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
3.2%
4:1
3.9%
4:2
2.4%
4:3
1.0%
4:4
0.3%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
1.4%
5:1
1.7%
5:2
1.0%
5:3
0.4%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:110.2%
2:19.7%
2:07.9%
3:17.1%
2:25.9%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 13.10.2026
Cardiff City
21st place · 7 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Charlton 3:1
- 12.09.2026 away Bolton 0:1
- 08.09.2026 home Stoke 1:1
- 05.09.2026 away Portsmouth 0:2
- 02.09.2026 away QPR 1:2
Watford FC
20th place · 8 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.09.2026 away Bristol City 0:1
- 12.09.2026 home Stoke 1:2
- 08.09.2026 home Preston 2:1
- 05.09.2026 away West Brom 0:1
- 01.09.2026 away Swansea 0:2
This season: Cardiff City at home vs Watford FC away
| Metric | Cardiff City · at home | Watford FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 1–3–0 | 0–1–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.75 | 0.25 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| xG for per match | 2.24 | 0.83 |
| xG against per match | 1.36 | 1.84 |
| Shots on target per match | 7.00 | 3.25 |
| Corners per match | 8.75 | 3.75 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 25% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Cardiff City wins3
Draws2
Watford FC wins1
Goals per match2.50
Both teams scored5/6
Over 2.5 goals3/6
- 14.01.2025 Cardiff City 1:1 Watford FC
- 29.12.2024 Watford FC 1:2 Cardiff City
- 03.02.2024 Watford FC 0:1 Cardiff City
- 07.10.2023 Cardiff City 1:1 Watford FC
- 19.04.2023 Watford FC 1:3 Cardiff City
- 02.11.2022 Cardiff City 1:2 Watford FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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