Stoke City — Charlton Athletic: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 73.7% |
| 12 | 71.6% | |
| X2 | 54.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.0% / 48.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.0% / 9.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.5% / 26.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 46.9% / 53.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 25.3% / 74.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.6% / 88.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.6% / 95.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Stoke City have a slight edge over Charlton Athletic in this Championship meeting, with the overall assessment giving the hosts the stronger position. That advantage is not decisive, however, and the match appears capable of developing into a competitive contest rather than a one-sided game. The expected scoring level is medium, suggesting enough attacking threat for chances at both ends without pointing to an especially open encounter.
The possibility of both teams scoring is finely balanced, so the match could be shaped by which side makes better use of its opportunities. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 1:0 and 2:1, reflecting a narrow range between a home win and a draw. Stoke City should therefore be regarded as the team with the slight edge, while Charlton Athletic remain well placed to keep the contest close.
What matters before kick-off
Schedule and recent form
Stoke City host Charlton Athletic in the Championship on September 5, 2026. Stoke secured their first league win of the season in their previous fixture by beating Norwich City 1-0, ending a three-match losing start.
Charlton Athletic form
Charlton Athletic travel to face Stoke City having remained unbeaten across their opening four fixtures of the 2026/27 Championship campaign.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.