Stoke City — Charlton Athletic: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 73.7% |
| 12 | 71.6% | |
| X2 | 54.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.0% / 48.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.0% / 9.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.5% / 26.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 46.9% / 53.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 25.3% / 74.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.6% / 88.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.6% / 95.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.09.2026
Stoke City
22nd place · 3 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 01.09.2026 home Norwich 1:0
- 29.08.2026 away Wolves 1:4
- 22.08.2026 away Southampton 1:3
- 15.08.2026 home Swansea 1:2
- 02.05.2026 away Bristol City 0:2
Charlton Athletic
3rd place · 10 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.09.2026 away West Brom 1:1
- 29.08.2026 home Preston 1:0
- 22.08.2026 away West Ham 2:1
- 15.08.2026 home Derby 2:1
- 02.05.2026 away Swansea 1:3
This season: Stoke City at home vs Charlton Athletic away
| Metric | Stoke City · at home | Charlton Athletic · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–1 | 1–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 0.43 | 0.51 |
| xG against per match | 0.91 | 1.71 |
| Shots on target per match | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| Corners per match | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 4 meetings
- 11.02.2026 Charlton Athletic 1:0 Stoke City
- 25.11.2025 Stoke City 3:0 Charlton Athletic
- 08.02.2020 Stoke City 3:1 Charlton Athletic
- 10.08.2019 Charlton Athletic 3:1 Stoke City
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Stoke City have a slight edge over Charlton Athletic in this Championship meeting, with the overall assessment giving the hosts the stronger position. That advantage is not decisive, however, and the match appears capable of developing into a competitive contest rather than a one-sided game. The expected scoring level is medium, suggesting enough attacking threat for chances at both ends without pointing to an especially open encounter.
The possibility of both teams scoring is finely balanced, so the match could be shaped by which side makes better use of its opportunities. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 1:0 and 2:1, reflecting a narrow range between a home win and a draw. Stoke City should therefore be regarded as the team with the slight edge, while Charlton Athletic remain well placed to keep the contest close.
What matters before kick-off
Schedule and recent form
Stoke City host Charlton Athletic in the Championship on September 5, 2026. Stoke secured their first league win of the season in their previous fixture by beating Norwich City 1-0, ending a three-match losing start.
Charlton Athletic form
Charlton Athletic travel to face Stoke City having remained unbeaten across their opening four fixtures of the 2026/27 Championship campaign.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.