Lincoln City — Southampton FC: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 46.6% |
| 12 | 75.6% | |
| X2 | 77.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 60.0% / 40.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.4% / 5.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.4% / 17.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 59.6% / 40.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 37.2% / 62.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 19.9% / 80.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.3% / 90.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.09.2026
Lincoln City
18th place · 4 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 01.09.2026 home Blackburn 0:0
- 29.08.2026 away Bolton 1:0
- 22.08.2026 home Portsmouth 1:3
- 15.08.2026 away Middlesbrough 1:2
- 02.05.2026 away Port Vale 2:0
Southampton FC
4th place · 7 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 01.09.2026 away Birmingham 1:1
- 29.08.2026 home Millwall 5:1
- 22.08.2026 home Stoke 3:1
- 16.08.2026 away Watford 1:2
- 02.05.2026 away Preston 3:1
This season: Lincoln City at home vs Southampton FC away
| Metric | Lincoln City · at home | Southampton FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–1 | 0–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| xG for per match | 1.90 | 1.37 |
| xG against per match | 0.73 | 1.18 |
| Shots on target per match | 2.50 | 3.50 |
| Corners per match | 6.50 | 6.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% |
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Lincoln City face Southampton FC in a Championship meeting assessed as a medium-scoring contest. The overall view gives Southampton FC a slight but well-supported edge, while the strongest market signal points towards Southampton FC avoiding defeat. That suggests a match in which the visitors may have the greater control, although Lincoln City remain capable of making the game competitive.
Both teams are considered likely to score, so the contest may be open rather than dominated entirely by one side. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 1:2 and 0:2, reflecting a narrow range between a level result and a Southampton FC victory. Lincoln City’s route into the match is likely to depend on converting their opportunities and resisting pressure during Southampton FC’s stronger phases. Overall, the assessment favours Southampton FC, but it does not point to a one-sided encounter.
What matters before kick-off
First league meeting in over six decades
The Championship match between Lincoln City and Southampton marks their first league encounter since 1961.
Lincoln City's recent draw
Lincoln City head into the fixture following a 0-0 home draw against Blackburn Rovers in their previous league match.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.