Standard Liege — Royal Antwerp FC: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 73.8% |
| 12 | 73.0% | |
| X2 | 53.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 60.0% / 40.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.2% / 6.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.1% / 18.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 56.7% / 43.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 34.3% / 65.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.8% / 82.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.0% / 92.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Standard Liege have a clear but narrow edge over Royal Antwerp FC in this First Division A meeting. The outlook points towards a competitive match rather than a one-sided contest, with the hosts favoured to avoid defeat and possessing the stronger overall position in the assessment. The balance of the game may depend on whether Standard Liege can turn that home advantage into control of the key phases.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, while both teams are likely to find the net. That combination suggests an open enough match for chances at both ends, but not necessarily a high-scoring affair. A draw remains a realistic outcome, particularly if Royal Antwerp FC can match the hosts' intensity and limit clear opportunities. The most plausible scenarios range from a level result to a narrow Standard Liege win, with defensive discipline likely to be important in deciding the final margin.
What matters before kick-off
Recent League Form
Standard Liège enter the match following a 2-1 victory over OH Leuven. Royal Antwerp suffered a 4-1 defeat against Sint-Truiden in their previous league fixture.
Previous Head-to-Head Result
In their most recent head-to-head meeting, Standard Liège earned a 5-0 away victory against Royal Antwerp.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.