Royal Charleroi SC — Union Saint-Gilloise: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 52.0% |
| 12 | 74.0% | |
| X2 | 74.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.1% / 41.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.5% / 6.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 79.5% / 20.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.3% / 44.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 33.0% / 67.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.8% / 83.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.4% / 92.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Royal Charleroi SC face Union Saint-Gilloise in a First Division A meeting where the visitors hold a slight but well-supported advantage. The outlook points towards a competitive match rather than a one-sided contest, with Union Saint-Gilloise better placed to avoid defeat. Royal Charleroi SC should still have opportunities to influence the game, particularly if they can maintain pressure and make effective use of their attacking phases.
The expected scoring pattern is medium-scoring, and both teams are considered likely to find the net. That suggests an open enough contest, although not necessarily one dominated by chances throughout. A draw remains a realistic possibility, with 1:1 among the leading scorelines, while 1:2 and 0:1 reflect the visitors' edge. Overall, the analysis favours Union Saint-Gilloise in the result market while allowing for Royal Charleroi SC to remain competitive.
What matters before kick-off
Recent Victory for Union Saint-Gilloise
On September 2, 2026, Union Saint-Gilloise secured a 3-0 away victory against Sint-Truiden in the Belgian Pro League.
Union Saint-Gilloise Super Cup Triumph
Earlier in the season, Union Saint-Gilloise won the 2026 Belgian Super Cup by defeating Club Brugge 5-4 on penalties following a 1-1 draw.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.