Royal Charleroi SC — Union Saint-Gilloise: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 52.0% |
| 12 | 74.0% | |
| X2 | 74.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.1% / 41.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.5% / 6.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 79.5% / 20.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.3% / 44.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 33.0% / 67.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.8% / 83.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.4% / 92.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.09.2026
Royal Charleroi SC
2nd place · 12 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.08.2026 away Kortrijk 3:1
- 22.08.2026 home Mechelen 2:0
- 16.08.2026 away Lommel SK 1:0
- 09.08.2026 home Oud-Heverlee Leuven 3:1
- 23.05.2026 away Standard 2:0
Union Saint-Gilloise
4th place · 10 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.09.2026 away St Truiden 3:0
- 30.08.2026 home Anderlecht 3:0
- 15.08.2026 home Waregem 0:0
- 08.08.2026 away Westerlo 5:1
- 24.05.2026 home Anderlecht 5:1
This season: Royal Charleroi SC at home vs Union Saint-Gilloise away
| Metric | Royal Charleroi SC · at home | Union Saint-Gilloise · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 2–0–0 | 2–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.50 | 4.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| xG for per match | 2.29 | 2.14 |
| xG against per match | 0.77 | 0.81 |
| Shots on target per match | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| Corners per match | 4.50 | 3.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 14.12.2025 Royal Charleroi SC 1:1 Union Saint-Gilloise
- 18.10.2025 Union Saint-Gilloise 3:1 Royal Charleroi SC
- 11.01.2025 Royal Charleroi SC 1:2 Union Saint-Gilloise
- 16.08.2024 Union Saint-Gilloise 1:0 Royal Charleroi SC
- 10.12.2023 Royal Charleroi SC 1:3 Union Saint-Gilloise
- 01.10.2023 Union Saint-Gilloise 3:1 Royal Charleroi SC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Royal Charleroi SC face Union Saint-Gilloise in a First Division A meeting where the visitors hold a slight but well-supported advantage. The outlook points towards a competitive match rather than a one-sided contest, with Union Saint-Gilloise better placed to avoid defeat. Royal Charleroi SC should still have opportunities to influence the game, particularly if they can maintain pressure and make effective use of their attacking phases.
The expected scoring pattern is medium-scoring, and both teams are considered likely to find the net. That suggests an open enough contest, although not necessarily one dominated by chances throughout. A draw remains a realistic possibility, with 1:1 among the leading scorelines, while 1:2 and 0:1 reflect the visitors' edge. Overall, the analysis favours Union Saint-Gilloise in the result market while allowing for Royal Charleroi SC to remain competitive.
What matters before kick-off
Recent Victory for Union Saint-Gilloise
On September 2, 2026, Union Saint-Gilloise secured a 3-0 away victory against Sint-Truiden in the Belgian Pro League.
Union Saint-Gilloise Super Cup Triumph
Earlier in the season, Union Saint-Gilloise won the 2026 Belgian Super Cup by defeating Club Brugge 5-4 on penalties following a 1-1 draw.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.