Lommel SK — Club Brugge: Win probabilities, 04.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 25.2% |
| 12 | 84.1% | |
| X2 | 90.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.1% / 37.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.1% / 2.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 91.6% / 8.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 75.6% / 24.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 55.9% / 44.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 36.3% / 63.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 20.9% / 79.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Lommel SK host Club Brugge in the First Division A, with the available assessment giving Club Brugge a clear advantage. The visitors are rated as the stronger side, and the high confidence behind that view suggests that the main expectation is an away victory rather than a closely balanced contest. Lommel SK will need to remain disciplined and efficient in possession if they are to limit Club Brugge’s attacking influence.
The match is also projected to be open, with a high-scoring pattern and both teams likely to find the net. That combination leaves room for Lommel SK to contribute offensively, even though Club Brugge are expected to control the more decisive phases of the game. The indicated scorelines are 0:2, 0:3 and 1:2, all of which point toward an away win while allowing for different levels of resistance from the hosts. Overall, the strongest signal is a Club Brugge victory in an entertaining match.
What matters before kick-off
Carlos Forbs Red Card
In their previous league fixture, Club Brugge suffered a 2-1 defeat against KAA Gent, with winger Carlos Forbs receiving a red card in the 70th minute.
Lommel SK Recent Victory
Lommel SK enters the match following a 1-0 away victory against Cercle Brugge on August 29, 2026, secured by a goal from Tom Reyners.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.