KAA Gent — Oud-Heverlee Leuven: Win probabilities, 03.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 83.7% |
| 12 | 75.4% | |
| X2 | 40.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 50.5% / 49.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.4% / 7.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.9% / 23.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 51.5% / 48.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 29.4% / 70.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.2% / 85.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.0% / 94.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
KAA Gent meet Oud-Heverlee Leuven in First Division A with a slight edge for the hosts, although the low confidence level points to a relatively open assessment rather than a decisive prediction. KAA Gent may have the stronger overall position in this matchup, but Oud-Heverlee Leuven should remain competitive and capable of making the game difficult.
The scoring outlook is medium, suggesting a match that could develop without becoming consistently high-tempo or goal-heavy. Whether both teams score is finely balanced, so neither a clean sheet nor goals at both ends should be treated as the clear expectation. The most plausible scorelines include 1:1, 2:0 and 1:0, reflecting the narrow gap between a controlled KAA Gent victory and a draw. Overall, the hosts hold the clearer side of the balance, but the limited confidence leaves room for Oud-Heverlee Leuven to earn a result.
What matters before kick-off
Match fixture rescheduled
KAA Gent's home fixture against Oud-Heverlee Leuven was rescheduled from August 23 to September 3 due to KAA Gent's qualification for the UEFA Conference League play-off round.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.