KAA Gent — Oud-Heverlee Leuven: Win probabilities, 03.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 83.7% |
| 12 | 75.4% | |
| X2 | 40.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 50.5% / 49.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.4% / 7.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.9% / 23.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 51.5% / 48.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 29.4% / 70.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.2% / 85.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.0% / 94.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 03.09.2026
KAA Gent
4th place · 9 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 home Club Brugge 2:1
- 16.08.2026 away RAAL La Louviere 2:1
- 09.08.2026 home Mechelen 2:0
- 24.05.2026 away Club Brugge 0:5
- 21.05.2026 home St. Gilloise 0:0
Oud-Heverlee Leuven
17th place · 0 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.08.2026 home Standard 1:2
- 15.08.2026 home Club Brugge 0:3
- 09.08.2026 away Charleroi 1:3
- 23.05.2026 home Genk 0:2
- 19.05.2026 away Charleroi 1:1
This season: KAA Gent at home vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven away
| Metric | KAA Gent · at home | Oud-Heverlee Leuven · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 2–0–0 | 0–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.50 | 3.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.27 | 1.30 |
| xG against per match | 0.50 | 3.14 |
| Shots on target per match | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| Corners per match | 2.50 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 07.02.2026 KAA Gent 1:3 Oud-Heverlee Leuven
- 02.11.2025 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 4:0 KAA Gent
- 26.01.2025 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 0:0 KAA Gent
- 29.09.2024 KAA Gent 3:0 Oud-Heverlee Leuven
- 12.05.2024 KAA Gent 0:1 Oud-Heverlee Leuven
- 14.04.2024 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 2:1 KAA Gent
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
KAA Gent meet Oud-Heverlee Leuven in First Division A with a slight edge for the hosts, although the low confidence level points to a relatively open assessment rather than a decisive prediction. KAA Gent may have the stronger overall position in this matchup, but Oud-Heverlee Leuven should remain competitive and capable of making the game difficult.
The scoring outlook is medium, suggesting a match that could develop without becoming consistently high-tempo or goal-heavy. Whether both teams score is finely balanced, so neither a clean sheet nor goals at both ends should be treated as the clear expectation. The most plausible scorelines include 1:1, 2:0 and 1:0, reflecting the narrow gap between a controlled KAA Gent victory and a draw. Overall, the hosts hold the clearer side of the balance, but the limited confidence leaves room for Oud-Heverlee Leuven to earn a result.
What matters before kick-off
Match fixture rescheduled
KAA Gent's home fixture against Oud-Heverlee Leuven was rescheduled from August 23 to September 3 due to KAA Gent's qualification for the UEFA Conference League play-off round.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.