St. Truidense VV — Union Saint-Gilloise: Win probabilities, 02.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 50.5% |
| 12 | 74.4% | |
| X2 | 75.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 60.8% / 39.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.0% / 6.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.2% / 17.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 58.8% / 41.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 36.5% / 63.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 19.4% / 80.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.9% / 91.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
St. Truidense VV face Union Saint-Gilloise in a First Division A meeting where the visitors hold a slight edge. The overall assessment points towards Union Saint-Gilloise avoiding defeat, while the balance between the teams still leaves room for a competitive contest rather than a one-sided match. Confidence in this away-leaning view is high, although the expected margin remains limited.
The game is projected to have an open attacking character, with both St. Truidense VV and Union Saint-Gilloise likely to find the net. That combination suggests a match shaped by chances at both ends and a tempo that could produce several goals. St. Truidense VV should have opportunities to challenge the visitors, but Union Saint-Gilloise are rated more favourably in the overall outcome assessment.
What matters before kick-off
STVV's away victory over Antwerp
St. Truidense VV enter the match following a 4-1 away victory over Royal Antwerp in the Jupiler Pro League, where Samed Bazdar scored twice.
Union SG's home win over Anderlecht
Union Saint-Gilloise head into the fixture on the back of a 3-0 home victory against Anderlecht in their latest Pro League match.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.