Stade Rennais FC — Le Mans FC: Win probabilities, 30.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 87.6% |
| 12 | 83.1% | |
| X2 | 29.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.8% / 46.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.4% / 3.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.0% / 16.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.1% / 35.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.0% / 58.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.8% / 76.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.7% / 88.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 30.08.2026
Stade Rennais FC
12th place · 1 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.08.2026 home Paris SG 2:2
- 17.05.2026 away Marseille 1:3
- 10.05.2026 home Paris FC 2:1
- 03.05.2026 away Lyon 2:4
- 26.04.2026 home Nantes 2:1
Le Mans FC
11th place · 1 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.08.2026 home Brest 2:2
- 09.05.2026 away Bastia 2:0
- 02.05.2026 home Reims 1:1
- 25.04.2026 away Grenoble 1:1
- 17.04.2026 home Clermont 1:0
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Stade Rennais FC enter this Ligue 1 meeting with a moderate but clear advantage over Le Mans FC. The available assessment points towards the hosts being the stronger side, although the level of confidence does not suggest an entirely one-sided contest. Stade Rennais FC should look to impose their quality and control the match, while Le Mans FC will need to remain compact and make the most of their opportunities in transition.
The game is also expected to have an open, high-scoring character. That creates room for both teams to influence the result, but whether both sides find the net remains difficult to separate. Stade Rennais FC appear more likely to take control, yet Le Mans FC retain a realistic chance of contributing to an entertaining contest if they respond well to the hosts’ pressure. Overall, the balance favours Stade Rennais FC, with the main uncertainty surrounding the margin of victory and the extent to which Le Mans FC can stay competitive.
What matters before kick-off
Le Mans squad selection
Le Mans manager Patrick Videira named a 20-player squad for the trip to Rennes. Colas, Larouci, and Yohou remain sidelined due to injury.
Le Mans opening round result
Le Mans opened their Ligue 1 campaign with a 2-2 home draw against Brest.
Sold-out away section
Over 1,000 Le Mans supporters will travel to Roazhon Park, filling out the allocated away section.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.