Stade Brest 29 — Toulouse FC: Win probabilities, 29.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 64.9% |
| 12 | 72.4% | |
| X2 | 62.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.6% / 43.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.6% / 7.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.8% / 23.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 51.6% / 48.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 29.4% / 70.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.3% / 85.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.0% / 94.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 29.08.2026
Stade Brest 29
8th place · 1 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.08.2026 away Le Mans 2:2
- 17.05.2026 home Angers 1:1
- 13.05.2026 home Strasbourg 1:2
- 10.05.2026 away Paris SG 0:1
- 03.05.2026 away Paris FC 0:4
Toulouse FC
15th place · 0 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.08.2026 home Lyon 0:2
- 17.05.2026 away Nantes 0:0
- 10.05.2026 home Lyon 2:1
- 03.05.2026 away Strasbourg 2:1
- 25.04.2026 home Monaco 2:2
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 25.01.2026 Stade Brest 29 0:2 Toulouse FC
- 24.08.2025 Toulouse FC 2:0 Stade Brest 29
- 30.03.2025 Toulouse FC 2:4 Stade Brest 29
- 22.09.2024 Stade Brest 29 2:0 Toulouse FC
- 19.05.2024 Toulouse FC 0:3 Stade Brest 29
- 08.10.2023 Stade Brest 29 1:1 Toulouse FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Stade Brest 29 and Toulouse FC appear evenly matched ahead of this Ligue 1 meeting. The available assessment points to a moderate-confidence contest in which neither side holds a decisive overall advantage. The expected scoring level is medium, suggesting a match with opportunities at both ends but without a clear indication of an exceptionally open game.
The main lean is toward Stade Brest 29 avoiding defeat, although the balance between the teams remains narrow. Both teams scoring is essentially uncertain, so the match could develop into a controlled draw or be decided by small differences in efficiency. The most plausible scorelines reflect that uncertainty: 1:1, 1:2 and 2:1. Toulouse FC have enough potential to make the contest competitive, while Stade Brest 29 retain the slight practical edge of home advantage.
What matters before kick-off
Brest opening match result
In matchday one of Ligue 1, Stade Brestois drew 2-2 against Le Mans with goals from Romain Del Castillo and Kamory Doumbia.
Toulouse opening match result
Toulouse started their new Ligue 1 campaign with a 2-0 defeat at home against Lyon.
Brest and Toulouse availability
Stade Brestois defender Brendan Chardonnet is sidelined with an injury, while Toulouse have Abu Francis unavailable due to injury.
Previous head-to-head meeting
In their most recent Ligue 1 matchup in January 2026, Toulouse secured a 2-0 victory away against Stade Brestois.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.