Stade Brest 29 — Toulouse FC: Win probabilities, 29.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 64.9% |
| 12 | 72.4% | |
| X2 | 62.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.6% / 43.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.6% / 7.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.8% / 23.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 51.6% / 48.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 29.4% / 70.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.3% / 85.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.0% / 94.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Stade Brest 29 and Toulouse FC appear evenly matched ahead of this Ligue 1 meeting. The available assessment points to a moderate-confidence contest in which neither side holds a decisive overall advantage. The expected scoring level is medium, suggesting a match with opportunities at both ends but without a clear indication of an exceptionally open game.
The main lean is toward Stade Brest 29 avoiding defeat, although the balance between the teams remains narrow. Both teams scoring is essentially uncertain, so the match could develop into a controlled draw or be decided by small differences in efficiency. The most plausible scorelines reflect that uncertainty: 1:1, 1:2 and 2:1. Toulouse FC have enough potential to make the contest competitive, while Stade Brest 29 retain the slight practical edge of home advantage.
What matters before kick-off
Brest opening match result
In matchday one of Ligue 1, Stade Brestois drew 2-2 against Le Mans with goals from Romain Del Castillo and Kamory Doumbia.
Toulouse opening match result
Toulouse started their new Ligue 1 campaign with a 2-0 defeat at home against Lyon.
Brest and Toulouse availability
Stade Brestois defender Brendan Chardonnet is sidelined with an injury, while Toulouse have Abu Francis unavailable due to injury.
Previous head-to-head meeting
In their most recent Ligue 1 matchup in January 2026, Toulouse secured a 2-0 victory away against Stade Brestois.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.