AJ Auxerre — Angers SCO: Win probabilities, 29.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 73.3% |
| 12 | 72.5% | |
| X2 | 54.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.9% / 47.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.7% / 8.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.4% / 25.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 48.4% / 51.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.6% / 73.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.4% / 87.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.0% / 95.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
AJ Auxerre have a slight edge over Angers SCO in this Ligue 1 meeting, although the balance remains relatively close. The assessment points toward a home win or draw, giving AJ Auxerre greater protection in the overall outlook without removing the possibility of Angers SCO taking something from the match. The confidence in this reading is high, but the advantage is still described as narrow rather than decisive.
The game is expected to sit in a medium-scoring range. Both teams scoring is viewed as an even possibility, so the match could develop either through a controlled home performance or a more open exchange. The projected scorelines of 1:1, 1:0 and 2:1 reflect that uncertainty: a draw is plausible, while AJ Auxerre's most favourable paths involve keeping the margin tight. Angers SCO should therefore remain competitive, particularly if they can prevent the hosts from turning their slight advantage into sustained pressure.
What matters before kick-off
Auxerre squad updates ahead of Angers clash
Defender Christ Makosso is suspended following his red card in the opening match against Lens. However, Theo Bair and Rémy Labeau-Lascary are available to return to the squad.
Angers squad absences
Midfielders Haris Belkebla and Louis Mouton remain out of Angers' squad to face Auxerre as they continue working their way back to full fitness.
Slow starts for both teams in Ligue 1
Both clubs suffered defeats on matchday one of the Ligue 1 season, with Auxerre falling 5-2 away to Lens and Angers losing 2-0 at home against Lille.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.