Paris FC — OGC Nice: Win probabilities, 30.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 75.5% |
| 12 | 71.5% | |
| X2 | 53.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.1% / 45.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.3% / 8.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.0% / 24.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 49.5% / 50.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 27.6% / 72.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.1% / 86.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.3% / 94.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Paris FC have a slight edge over OGC Nice in this Ligue 1 meeting. The assessment points towards a competitive match in which the hosts are marginally better positioned, while the overall balance still leaves room for a draw. The most plausible outcomes are a narrow Paris FC victory or a level score, with 1:1, 2:1 and 1:0 among the likely scorelines.
The scoring outlook is moderate rather than open-ended. Both teams scoring is difficult to separate, so the match could develop either through a controlled home performance or a contest in which OGC Nice find a way onto the scoresheet. The 1X signal supports Paris FC avoiding defeat, but it does not remove the possibility of a closely fought stalemate.
What matters before kick-off
Goalless draws in opening round
Both clubs opened their Ligue 1 campaign with 0-0 draws on August 22, 2026, as Paris FC drew with Troyes and OGC Nice drew against FC Lorient.
Liam Rosenior leading Paris FC
Paris FC enter the match guided by new head coach Liam Rosenior, who was appointed ahead of the season to manage the French capital club in Ligue 1.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.