Paris FC — OGC Nice: Win probabilities, 30.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 75.5% |
| 12 | 71.5% | |
| X2 | 53.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.1% / 45.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.3% / 8.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.0% / 24.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 49.5% / 50.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 27.6% / 72.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.1% / 86.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.3% / 94.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 30.08.2026
Paris FC
14th place · 1 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.08.2026 away Troyes 0:0
- 17.05.2026 home Paris SG 2:1
- 10.05.2026 away Rennes 1:2
- 03.05.2026 home Brest 4:0
- 26.04.2026 home Lille 0:1
OGC Nice
13th place · 1 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.08.2026 home Lorient 0:0
- 17.05.2026 home Metz 0:0
- 10.05.2026 away Auxerre 1:2
- 02.05.2026 home Lens 1:1
- 26.04.2026 away Marseille 1:1
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
- 01.03.2026 Paris FC 1:0 OGC Nice
- 28.09.2025 OGC Nice 1:1 Paris FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Paris FC have a slight edge over OGC Nice in this Ligue 1 meeting. The assessment points towards a competitive match in which the hosts are marginally better positioned, while the overall balance still leaves room for a draw. The most plausible outcomes are a narrow Paris FC victory or a level score, with 1:1, 2:1 and 1:0 among the likely scorelines.
The scoring outlook is moderate rather than open-ended. Both teams scoring is difficult to separate, so the match could develop either through a controlled home performance or a contest in which OGC Nice find a way onto the scoresheet. The 1X signal supports Paris FC avoiding defeat, but it does not remove the possibility of a closely fought stalemate.
What matters before kick-off
Goalless draws in opening round
Both clubs opened their Ligue 1 campaign with 0-0 draws on August 22, 2026, as Paris FC drew with Troyes and OGC Nice drew against FC Lorient.
Liam Rosenior leading Paris FC
Paris FC enter the match guided by new head coach Liam Rosenior, who was appointed ahead of the season to manage the French capital club in Ligue 1.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.